106 W Second St · Leaf River, IL 61047

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · Other · 43 Days on market

Built 1900 8,276 sqft lot $44/sqft · 18% below area Est $85k · 18% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home features a spacious main floor with a living room, family room, dining room, kitchen, laundry area, and a full bathroom. Upstairs, you'll find three comfortable bedrooms along with an additional full bath. The home also includes a full basement for extra storage or potential living space, as well as a two-car garage.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; 2 stories
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Electric cooktop; Gas water heater; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,106 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools F.
• Forrestville Valley CUSD 221 (rural): math 25% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #206 of 620 in IL (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Ogle County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ogle County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.69%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,044
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -17.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $71,139
• Equity at exit: $63,062

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.37×
• Total profit: $183,664
• Equity at exit: $135,995

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61047

• Home prices YoY: 21.2%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,606/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $671

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on marketlisting id $70,000 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Auction 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Auction 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Auction 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $70,000 Auction 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $70,000 Auction 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $70,000 Auction 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $70,000 Auction 33 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $70,000 Auction 32 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Auction 31 DOM
11. 2026-04-27
    listed $75,000 Active 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    This two-story home features a spacious main floor with a living room, family room, dining room, kitchen, laundry area, and a full bathroom. Upstairs, you'll find three comfortable bedrooms along with an additional full bath. The home also includes a full basement for extra storage or potential living space, as well as a two-car garage.

12. 2026-04-27
    listed $75,000 Active 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    This two-story home features a spacious main floor with a living room, family room, dining room, kitchen, laundry area, and a full bathroom. Upstairs, you'll find three comfortable bedrooms along with an additional full bath. The home also includes a full basement for extra storage or potential living space, as well as a two-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,606 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,606 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,606
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,273
• − Management: −$1,273
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $5,455
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,309
• After-tax cash flow: $4,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forrestville Valley CUSD 221
• NCES district ID: 1715490
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,298
• Composite: 29.35/100
• National rank: #6535
• State rank: #206 of 620 in IL

Livability — Leaf River

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1106
• US rank: #20934

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leaf River, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,728

Population outlook (Ogle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,390 people
• By 2030: 46,346 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 41,772 · -13.7%
• By 2050: 36,911 · -23.7%
• By 2075: 27,130 · -43.9%
• By 2100: 18,627 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogle

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.5% · R 63.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.6pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+16.7 2008: R+7.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 51.45%
• Current HPI: 294.61
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-11 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $70,000 NWIAR
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $70,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $75,000 NWIAR
• 2026-04-27 Listed $75,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,606 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.