8921 Oak Knoll Ln · Houston, TX 77078

$168,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1950 7,200 sqft lot Est $133k · 26% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dream investor property this house. The home has completely renovated from scratch brand new flooring, brand new paint all appliances come included with the house. A huge lot not to forget no HOA, you can customize your investment the way you want. It has a lot of potential for any new project.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Oversized lot
• Conveniently located

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Curbs

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living); Slab foundation; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Built in 1950
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Two additional first-floor bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Kashmere H S (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 725 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,231 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.43%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,280
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8913 Homewood Ln	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (+4%)	16mo	$104,000	$105	67
9037 Linda Vista Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (+15%)	6mo	$189,000	$173	54
9214 Mirawood St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	968 (+2%)	15mo	$133,000	$137	51
9102 Lake Forest Blvd	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,020 (+7%)	20mo	$165,000	$162	50
8910 Talton St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+9%)	18mo	$135,000	$130	49
9203 Richland Dr	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,060 (+11%)	12mo	$143,000	$135	47
8926 Lake Forest Blvd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,052 (+10%)	16mo	$199,900	$190	43
9327 Richland Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,018 (+7%)	13mo	$140,000	$138	40
9514 Crestview Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,079 (+13%)	16mo	$159,000	$147	39
9319 Richland Dr	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,036 (+9%)	12mo	$145,000	$140	39
9334 Laura Koppe Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+13%)	3mo	$189,900	$176	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $7,263
• Equity at exit: $70,828

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $43,498
• Equity at exit: $105,623

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77078

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,272 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,261/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,442

Max offer price $144,282

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9133 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	3d	1	0.27mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,200	$1.22	24d	1	0.65mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,185	$1.20	43d	1	0.65mi
7600 E Houston Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,233	$1.21	14d	8	0.81mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	43d	1	0.94mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,107	$1.07	24d	1	0.94mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	20d	1	0.94mi
8309 Carolwood Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	938	$1,350	$1.44	43d	1	0.97mi
9700 Mesa Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	784	$922	$1.18	2d	8	1.00mi
8350 Tidwell Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$975	$0.99	43d	1	1.02mi
9393 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1135	$1,244	$1.10	1d	10	1.03mi
8346 Tidwell Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,000	$1.02	43d	1	1.03mi
8600 Sterlingshire St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	732	$1,050	$1.43	24d	2	1.10mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $168,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $168,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $168,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $168,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 667-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $168,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,261 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,074 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$814/yr (+$68/mo · 36.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$2,261
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,221
• − Management: −$1,221
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$4,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $-513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,247
• Household income: $39,093
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 41%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 307.0842
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $168,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-10-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-09-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-09-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-09-02 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Listed $167,900 HARMLS
• 2024-02-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-01-10 Listed $192,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-04 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-19 Listed $187,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,261 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.