42 Adelia Path · Northville, NY 11901

$1,485,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1996 0.80 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on a cut-de-sac just moments from the wavefront, 42 Adelia Path offers a thoughtfully updated Colonial in one of the North Fork's most sought-after settings. A welcoming foyer introduces a well-designed floor plan that balances open-concept living with traditional spaces for gathering and entertaining. At the heart of the home is a renovated chef's kitchen with an inviting eat-in area, French doors that open to the backyard and a full property sound system, creating a seamless connection between indoor and outdoor living. The kitchen flows effortlessly into a spacious great room anchored by a wood-burning fireplace, making it an ideaI space for everyday living as well as entertainin

Key facts

• Landscaped backyard
• Private bath
• Updated colonial

Tags

• UPDATED COLONIAL
• RENOVATED CHEF'S KITCHEN
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE BATH
• LANDSCAPED BACKYARD
• POOL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway; Private parking; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public water connected; Trash collection (public)
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Private in-ground pool; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Open kitchen with pantry
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning; One fireplace
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Walk-through kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.49M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($121k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $1.49M).
• Recommended offer: $1.46M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $416k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.46M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $1.49M implies a 1275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,462,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.21%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $925,908
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Simeon Rd	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,390 (+1%)	4mo	$940,000	$393	88

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $404,047
• Equity at exit: $221,418

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $1,181,930
• Equity at exit: $128,396

Cash invested: $415,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,788
• Tax from tax record: −$1,221 /mo · $14,658/yr
• Insurance: −$619
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $10,122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,187

Max offer price $1,485,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,963	-5% $10,543	+0% $10,122	+5% $9,702	+10% $9,282
Rent	-10% $8,147	-5% $9,135	+0% $10,122	+5% $11,110	+10% $12,097
Rate	-1.0pp $10,870	-0.5pp $10,500	base $10,122	+0.5pp $9,737	+1.0pp $9,346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $371,250
• Closing costs: $44,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Bay Run Riverhead, NY	4.0	3.5	1901	$25,000	$13.15	20d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,485,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,485,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,485,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,485,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,485,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,485,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,485,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,485,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $1,485,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,658 · $1,221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,877 · $1,656/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,219/yr (+$435/mo · 35.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$83,183
• − Property taxes: −$14,658
• − Insurance: −$7,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − Depreciation: −$43,200
• Taxable income: $103,534
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24,848
• After-tax cash flow: $96,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+4850.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $1,485,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 1985-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,658 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.