180 E Hillcrest Dr · Shelton, WA 98584

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1980 0.34 ac lot $126/sqft · 48% below area Est $326k · 48% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in Shorecrest! Located in a waterfront just outside of Shelton. Situated on a double lot, this property offers space, flexibility, and strong upside potential. The existing manufactured home is in poor condition and will require significant repair or possible replacement, but the value lies in the land and improvements already in place. A detached shop/garage adds functionality for storage, workspace, or future use. Property is served by septic, community water, and power, making it a compelling option for investors, builders, or buyers looking for their next project. Whether you’re exploring renovation, redevelopment, or holding for future use, this is a chance to

Key facts

• Two lots
• Septic
• Detached shop

Tags

• WATERFRONT
• TWO LOTS
• DETACHED SHOP
• COMMUNITY WATER
• SEPTIC
• POWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.1% in Shelton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#203 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Pioneer School District (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #188 of 291 in WA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $170k implies a 673% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.69%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,087
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -47.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
180 E Hillcrest Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	0mo	$155,000	$115	100
220 E hillcrest Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	7mo	$329,000	$254	86
131 E Kingston Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-5%)	3mo	$314,900	$246	81
70 E Earll Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-5%)	6mo	$300,000	$234	79
760 E Wood Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-5%)	4mo	$300,000	$234	76
780 E Wood Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	7mo	$330,000	$255	76
390 E Panorama Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	4mo	$325,950	$252	74
371 E Panorama Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-5%)	4mo	$337,000	$263	72
540 E Wood Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-5%)	5mo	$205,000	$160	68
31 E Sylvan Rd	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,253 (-7%)	2mo	$350,000	$279	67
31 E Sherwood Pl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	2mo	$364,900	$241	64
101 E Cedargrove Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	5mo	$320,000	$278	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,982
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $39,758
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98584

• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,017 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,510/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,431

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $560	-5% $512	+0% $464	+5% $415	+10% $367
Rent	-10% $304	-5% $384	+0% $464	+5% $543	+10% $623
Rate	-1.0pp $549	-0.5pp $507	base $464	+0.5pp $420	+1.0pp $375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-12
   listed $170,000 Active
2. 2012-11-02
   soldstatus $22,000 Sold
3. 2012-10-27
   status Pending
4. 2012-10-09
   price $29,900
5. 2012-06-02
   listed $35,000 Active
6. 2010-05-28
   soldstatus $20,000 Sold
7. 2010-04-08
   status Pending
8. 2010-04-08
   historical
9. 2010-03-25
   status Active
10. 2010-03-16
    historical
11. 2010-02-25
    price $39,900
12. 2010-02-04
    price $44,900
13. 2010-01-16
    price $49,900
14. 2009-12-29
    price $51,500
15. 2009-12-08
    price $56,500
16. 2009-11-19
    price $61,500
17. 2009-10-30
    listed $66,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,510 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,666 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$156/yr (+$13/mo · 10.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,510
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,937
• − Management: −$1,937
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $3,003
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$721
• After-tax cash flow: $4,842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pioneer School District
• NCES district ID: 5306750
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,151
• Composite: 40.15/100
• National rank: #7840
• State rank: #188 of 291 in WA

Livability — Shelton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #5586

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mason County · 40,606 people
• City population: 40,606
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• Population (ZIP): 40,606
• Household income: $78,610
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 687.0

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,005 people
• By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.42%
• Current HPI: 199.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+155.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listed $170,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-02 Sold (MLS) $22,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-09 Price Changed $29,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-02 Listed $35,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-28 Sold (MLS) $20,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-08 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-25 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-16 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-25 Price Changed $39,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-04 Price Changed $44,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-16 Price Changed $49,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-29 Price Changed $51,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-08 Price Changed $56,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-19 Price Changed $61,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-30 Listed $66,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,510 · +34.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.