3120 Ponderosa Dr · Jackson, MS 39212

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,777 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1966 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Searching for a place to call your own in a welcoming community? Look no further than this charming 4 bedroom 2.5 bathroom property. Spread out and enjoy the privacy of your own expansive domain, perfect for entertaining or creating a personal haven. The established neighborhood fosters a sense of community, ideal for forging connections.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1966
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Forest Hill High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #168 of 197 statewide, top 86%, 991 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.16%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,857
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1027 Autumn St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,694 (-5%)	1mo	$84,900	$50	78
1157 Rosewood St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,917 (+8%)	3mo	$79,000	$41	66
3320 Ridgeland Dr	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,850 (+4%)	4mo	$56,000	$30	64
3343 Fleetwood Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,918 (+8%)	1mo	$85,000	$44	63
1068 Westway St	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,927 (+8%)	2mo	$179,000	$93	61
1244 Cooper Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-6%)	2mo	$65,000	$39	58
3031 Longwood Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,960 (+10%)	0mo	$85,000	$43	57
1002 Autumn St	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,953 (+10%)	6mo	$73,600	$38	54
3218 Meadow Forest Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,898 (+7%)	3mo	$59,000	$31	50
3331 Cherrywood Dr	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,912 (+8%)	4mo	$57,000	$30	47
1422 Wooddell Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (-13%)	6mo	$99,000	$64	41
2971 Kentwood Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-14%)	3mo	$59,900	$39	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,258
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $19,676
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39212

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,342 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,078

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $280	-5% $244	+0% $209	+5% $173	+10% $138
Rent	-10% $103	-5% $156	+0% $209	+5% $262	+10% $315
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $241	base $209	+0.5pp $176	+1.0pp $144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2808 Ridgeland Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,600	$1.00	44d	1	0.32mi
2915 Longwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,400	$0.78	24d	1	0.40mi
3341 Suncrest Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	1.0	1292	$1,225	$0.95	44d	1	0.48mi
2904 Marwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,250	$0.80	24d	1	0.67mi
3020 Lakewood Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,150	$0.72	24d	1	0.75mi
427 McDowell Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1308	$1,200	$0.92	14d	1	0.88mi
3122 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,100	$0.77	44d	1	0.90mi
3162 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,236	$0.97	44d	1	0.91mi
3147 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	2137	$1,425	$0.67	14d	1	1.03mi
3147 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	2137	$1,425	$0.67	44d	1	1.03mi
3151 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,306	$0.89	14d	1	1.04mi
1223 Marydale Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1300	$950	$0.73	44d	1	1.16mi
2732 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1566	$1,050	$0.67	24d	1	1.19mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	24d	1	1.24mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	14d	1	1.24mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	44d	1	1.33mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	14d	1	1.33mi
2729 Carleton St Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1666	$1,575	$0.95	14d	1	1.34mi
3147 Bilgray Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1850	$1,306	$0.71	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   status Active
3. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-12
   status Active
5. 2026-01-19
   status Pending
6. 2025-11-25
   listed $125,000 Active
7. 2025-07-18
   listed $1,550
8. 2025-03-28
   historical $1,550
9. 2025-03-04
   listed $1,550
10. 2024-12-19
    soldstatus Closed 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Searching for a place to call your own in a welcoming community? Look no further than this charming 4 bedroom 2.5 bathroom property. Spread out and enjoy the privacy of your own expansive domain, perfect for entertaining or creating a personal haven. The established neighborhood fosters a sense of community, ideal for forging connections.

11. 2024-12-16
    status Pending 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Searching for a place to call your own in a welcoming community? Look no further than this charming 4 bedroom 2.5 bathroom property. Spread out and enjoy the privacy of your own expansive domain, perfect for entertaining or creating a personal haven. The established neighborhood fosters a sense of community, ideal for forging connections.

12. 2024-11-08
    status Pending 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Searching for a place to call your own in a welcoming community? Look no further than this charming 4 bedroom 2.5 bathroom property. Spread out and enjoy the privacy of your own expansive domain, perfect for entertaining or creating a personal haven. The established neighborhood fosters a sense of community, ideal for forging connections.

13. 2024-10-15
    status Active 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Searching for a place to call your own in a welcoming community? Look no further than this charming 4 bedroom 2.5 bathroom property. Spread out and enjoy the privacy of your own expansive domain, perfect for entertaining or creating a personal haven. The established neighborhood fosters a sense of community, ideal for forging connections.

14. 2024-09-26
    status Pending 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Searching for a place to call your own in a welcoming community? Look no further than this charming 4 bedroom 2.5 bathroom property. Spread out and enjoy the privacy of your own expansive domain, perfect for entertaining or creating a personal haven. The established neighborhood fosters a sense of community, ideal for forging connections.

15. 2024-05-22
    listed $59,000 Active 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Searching for a place to call your own in a welcoming community? Look no further than this charming 4 bedroom 2.5 bathroom property. Spread out and enjoy the privacy of your own expansive domain, perfect for entertaining or creating a personal haven. The established neighborhood fosters a sense of community, ideal for forging connections.

16. 2013-11-19
    soldstatus 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Great property! Fantastic lot with lots of mature plantings. Spacious home with some original flooring. Needs a little TLC, but could be a great home! EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. Case #281-288272. HUD HOME SOLD AS/IS. Uninsured Down Payment as low as 100.00 if owner/occupant purchase.You must be a registered HUD bide to place a bid on this property.

17. 2013-10-10
    listed $15,000 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Great property! Fantastic lot with lots of mature plantings. Spacious home with some original flooring. Needs a little TLC, but could be a great home! EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY. Case #281-288272. HUD HOME SOLD AS/IS. Uninsured Down Payment as low as 100.00 if owner/occupant purchase.You must be a registered HUD bide to place a bid on this property.

18. 2012-01-12
    soldstatus
19. 2004-11-20
    historical
20. 2002-02-28
    soldstatus
21. 2002-02-28
    soldstatus
22. 2001-10-30
    listed $69,900
23. 2001-04-25
    listed $76,500
24. 1977-01-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,725 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,725 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,288
• − Management: −$1,288
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $540
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$129
• After-tax cash flow: $2,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,659
• Household income: $50,722
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.01%
• Current HPI: 174.4025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+63.4% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-02-24 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-02-12 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-01-19 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-11-25 Listed $125,000 MLSU
• 2025-07-18 Listed for Rent $1,550 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-03-28 Rental Removed $1,550 MLSU
• 2025-03-04 Listed for Rent $1,550 MLSU
• 2024-12-19 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2024-12-16 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-11-08 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-10-15 Relisted — MLSU
• 2024-09-26 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-05-22 Listed $59,000 MLSU
• 2013-11-19 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-10-10 Listed $15,000 MLSU
• 2012-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-11-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2002-02-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-02-28 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2001-10-30 Listed $69,900 MLSU
• 2001-04-25 Listed $76,500 MLSU
• 1977-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,725 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.