2237 Nora Dr · Blackshear, GA 31516

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1992 1.09 ac lot $66/sqft · at area comps Est $73k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 1992 mobile home features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with approx 1056 sq feet of living space, and on approx 1.09 acres. As you enter the front steps, there's a spacious living space with carpet flooring. The kitchen includes an oven/range, refrigerator, and dishwasher, along with washer and dryer hookups nearby for convenience. This home offers a split-bedroom floor plan for added privacy. The master bedroom features carpet, and the master bath has a walk-in closet and tub/shower combo. Two additional bedrooms also feature carpet and share a guest bath with tub/shower combo. Outside you will find a large back covered porch perfect for relaxing, along with a storage building that remains w

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Storage building
• Gated at the front

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING SPACE
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE BACK COVERED PORCH
• STORAGE BUILDING
• GATED AT THE FRONT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-story; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Outbuilding; Storage structure; Fenced lot; Approximately 1.09 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Has view; Fixer condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $445 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 2.8% in Blackshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#154 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Pierce County (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #15 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.28%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,281
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -4.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2237 Nora Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$65,000	$62	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $16,983
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $51,160
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31516

• Home prices YoY: -9.1%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $152/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $517

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-09
   listed $69,900 Active 1149-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $152 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $643 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$491/yr (+$41/mo · 322.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$152
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,037
• − Management: −$1,037
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $4,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,065
• After-tax cash flow: $4,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pierce County
• NCES district ID: 1304140
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,523
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3097
• State rank: #15 of 174 in GA

Livability — Blackshear

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #9915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,465
• Population (ZIP): 15,465

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,690 people
• By 2030: 19,886 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 20,140 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 20,113 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 19,166 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 16,296 · -17.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.5) · D 11.2% · R 88.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -62.5pp · 2024: -77.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.5 2020: R+75.1 2016: R+74.0 2012: R+66.4 2008: R+62.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.01%
• Current HPI: 259.8612
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) $65,000 GIAR
• 2026-05-26 Pending — GIAR
• 2026-05-09 Listed $69,900 GIAR

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $152 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.