11611 Sherwood Dr · Otsego Lake, MI 49733

$122,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 858 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 1978 0.55 ac lot $142/sqft · 11% above area Est $110k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice big wooded lot in Guthrie Lakes Enchanted Forest association. 2 bed/2 bath mobile with detached garage, & all appliances included! Enjoy all the amenities - pool, clubhouse, lake access with great fishing. New windows & fencing in back yard. Nice big covered porch & the roof has been upgraded to metal. Great price for a great exclusive location. This is priced to sell quickly!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Wooded lot
• Wood stove

Tags

• WOODED LOT
• LAKE ACCESS
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WOOD STOVE
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Located in Enchanted Forest Subdivision
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); On waterfront (Guthrie Lake); Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; Wood heating; Wood stove; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Wood burning stove
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-658/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $87k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gaylord Community Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #123 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gaylord High Schoolvoc Bldg (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #99 of 713 statewide, top 14%, 961 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($843 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Otsego County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $86,570 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,000
• List price: $122,000
• Delta: 10.91%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11611 Sherwood Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	858 (0%)	1mo	$110,000	$128	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $62,899
• Equity at exit: $109,907

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $187,873
• Equity at exit: $237,019

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49733

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $866 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $578/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $935

Max offer price $112,307

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $122,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $122,000 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $122,000 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $122,000 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
5. 2026-05-15
   historical Active Under Contract 828-char remark
6. 2026-05-06
   listed $122,000 Active 828-char remark
7. 2021-10-01
   soldstatus $55,000 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   Nice big wooded lot in Guthrie Lakes Enchanted Forest association. 2 bed/2 bath mobile with detached garage, & all appliances included! Enjoy all the amenities - pool, clubhouse, lake access with great fishing. New windows & fencing in back yard. Nice big covered porch & the roof has been upgraded to metal. Great price for a great exclusive location. This is priced to sell quickly!

8. 2021-09-05
   listed $65,000 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   Nice big wooded lot in Guthrie Lakes Enchanted Forest association. 2 bed/2 bath mobile with detached garage, & all appliances included! Enjoy all the amenities - pool, clubhouse, lake access with great fishing. New windows & fencing in back yard. Nice big covered porch & the roof has been upgraded to metal. Great price for a great exclusive location. This is priced to sell quickly!

9. 2013-10-29
   soldstatus $32,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $578 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$650/yr (+$54/mo · 112.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$578
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$831
• − Management: −$831
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable loss: −$2,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$683
• After-tax cash flow: $24/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gaylord Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615730
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,682
• Composite: 40.97/100
• National rank: #3597
• State rank: #123 of 540 in MI

Livability — Otsego Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,910

Population outlook (Otsego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,175 people
• By 2030: 23,836 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 22,718 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,411 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 18,864 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 15,011 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otsego

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.3) · D 31.6% · R 67.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -35.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.3 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.47%
• Current HPI: 291.6348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+234.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Sold (MLS) $110,000 WWMLS
• 2026-06-01 Pending — WWMLS
• 2026-05-15 Contingent — WWMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $122,000 WWMLS
• 2021-10-01 Sold (MLS) $55,000 WWMLS
• 2021-09-05 Listed $65,000 WWMLS
• 2013-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $32,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $578 · -22.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.