18370 S Matthew Ct · Beavercreek, OR 97045

$449,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,575 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1990 6.99 ac lot $175/sqft · 39% below area Est $780k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*DO NOT DRIVE BY WITHOUT AN APPOINTMENT* Distressed property due to land movement, drainage and foundation damage. Tucked away on 7 peaceful acres, this private retreat offers the perfect balance of nature, space, and convenience. A year-round creek winds through the property, creating a serene setting surrounded by mature trees and the quiet beauty of the outdoors. The home features 4 bedrooms plus a versatile bonus space—ideal for a home office, creative studio, or even a home-based business. Inside, you’ll find fresh new carpet and interior paint, giving the home a clean and welcoming feel. The kitchen includes a center island, all appliances, and a window overlooking the woods, bringing natural light and tranquil views into the heart of the home. Step outside onto the expansive deck and take in the peaceful scenery—an ideal spot for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or simply enjoying the privacy and sounds of the creek below. The property also includes a 24x30 shop, perfect for hobbies, projects, storage, or extra workspace. This is truly a retreat-like setting—a place to escape, unwind, and enjoy the beauty of nature, while still being close to town with easy freeway access for everyday convenience.

Key facts

• 24x30 shop
• Year round creek
• Expansive deck

Tags

• YEAR ROUND CREEK
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• 24X30 SHOP
• VERSATILE BONUS SPACE
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (35.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.7% in Beavercreek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#249 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oregon City SD 62 (suburban): math 18% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #40 of 58 in OR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $199k; list at $450k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $290,947 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.49%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $779,503
• List price: $449,900
• Delta: -42.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18370 S Matthew Ct	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,736 (+6%)	0mo	$430,000	$157	87
18738 S Terry Michael Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,664 (+4%)	3mo	$760,000	$285	71
16765 S Beckman Rd	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,340 (-9%)	4mo	$660,000	$282	58
18187 S Matthew Ct	0.21mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,903 (+13%)	14mo	$1,029,999	$355	46
18101 S Elida Rd	0.58mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,724 (+6%)	13mo	$830,000	$305	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-101,900
• Equity at exit: $67,082

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-141,096
• Equity at exit: $38,899

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97045

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,909 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,423/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,374

Max offer price $385,093

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-112	-5% $-240	+0% $-367	+5% $-494	+10% $-622
Rent	-10% $-597	-5% $-482	+0% $-367	+5% $-252	+10% $-137
Rate	-1.0pp $-140	-0.5pp $-252	base $-367	+0.5pp $-483	+1.0pp $-602

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 1246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

   *DO NOT DRIVE BY WITHOUT AN APPOINTMENT* Distressed property due to land movement, drainage and foundation damage. Tucked away on 7 peaceful acres, this private retreat offers the perfect balance of nature, space, and convenience. A year-round creek winds through the property, creating a serene setting surrounded by mature trees and the quiet beauty of the outdoors. The home features 4 bedrooms plus a versatile bonus space—ideal for a home office, creative studio, or even a home-based business. Inside, you’ll find fresh new carpet and interior paint, giving the home a clean and welcoming feel. The kitchen includes a center island, all appliances, and a window overlooking the woods, bringing natural light and tranquil views into the heart of the home. Step outside onto the expansive deck and take in the peaceful scenery—an ideal spot for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or simply enjoying the privacy and sounds of the creek below. The property also includes a 24x30 shop, perfect for hobbies, projects, storage, or extra workspace. This is truly a retreat-like setting—a place to escape, unwind, and enjoy the beauty of nature, while still being close to town with easy freeway access for everyday convenience.

2. 2026-04-27
   status Active 1246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

   *DO NOT DRIVE BY WITHOUT AN APPOINTMENT* Distressed property due to land movement, drainage and foundation damage. Tucked away on 7 peaceful acres, this private retreat offers the perfect balance of nature, space, and convenience. A year-round creek winds through the property, creating a serene setting surrounded by mature trees and the quiet beauty of the outdoors. The home features 4 bedrooms plus a versatile bonus space—ideal for a home office, creative studio, or even a home-based business. Inside, you’ll find fresh new carpet and interior paint, giving the home a clean and welcoming feel. The kitchen includes a center island, all appliances, and a window overlooking the woods, bringing natural light and tranquil views into the heart of the home. Step outside onto the expansive deck and take in the peaceful scenery—an ideal spot for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or simply enjoying the privacy and sounds of the creek below. The property also includes a 24x30 shop, perfect for hobbies, projects, storage, or extra workspace. This is truly a retreat-like setting—a place to escape, unwind, and enjoy the beauty of nature, while still being close to town with easy freeway access for everyday convenience.

3. 2026-04-27
   price $449,900 1246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

   *DO NOT DRIVE BY WITHOUT AN APPOINTMENT* Distressed property due to land movement, drainage and foundation damage. Tucked away on 7 peaceful acres, this private retreat offers the perfect balance of nature, space, and convenience. A year-round creek winds through the property, creating a serene setting surrounded by mature trees and the quiet beauty of the outdoors. The home features 4 bedrooms plus a versatile bonus space—ideal for a home office, creative studio, or even a home-based business. Inside, you’ll find fresh new carpet and interior paint, giving the home a clean and welcoming feel. The kitchen includes a center island, all appliances, and a window overlooking the woods, bringing natural light and tranquil views into the heart of the home. Step outside onto the expansive deck and take in the peaceful scenery—an ideal spot for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or simply enjoying the privacy and sounds of the creek below. The property also includes a 24x30 shop, perfect for hobbies, projects, storage, or extra workspace. This is truly a retreat-like setting—a place to escape, unwind, and enjoy the beauty of nature, while still being close to town with easy freeway access for everyday convenience.

4. 2026-03-11
   status Pending 1246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

   *DO NOT DRIVE BY WITHOUT AN APPOINTMENT* Distressed property due to land movement, drainage and foundation damage. Tucked away on 7 peaceful acres, this private retreat offers the perfect balance of nature, space, and convenience. A year-round creek winds through the property, creating a serene setting surrounded by mature trees and the quiet beauty of the outdoors. The home features 4 bedrooms plus a versatile bonus space—ideal for a home office, creative studio, or even a home-based business. Inside, you’ll find fresh new carpet and interior paint, giving the home a clean and welcoming feel. The kitchen includes a center island, all appliances, and a window overlooking the woods, bringing natural light and tranquil views into the heart of the home. Step outside onto the expansive deck and take in the peaceful scenery—an ideal spot for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or simply enjoying the privacy and sounds of the creek below. The property also includes a 24x30 shop, perfect for hobbies, projects, storage, or extra workspace. This is truly a retreat-like setting—a place to escape, unwind, and enjoy the beauty of nature, while still being close to town with easy freeway access for everyday convenience.

5. 2026-03-05
   listed $399,900 Active 1246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

   *DO NOT DRIVE BY WITHOUT AN APPOINTMENT* Distressed property due to land movement, drainage and foundation damage. Tucked away on 7 peaceful acres, this private retreat offers the perfect balance of nature, space, and convenience. A year-round creek winds through the property, creating a serene setting surrounded by mature trees and the quiet beauty of the outdoors. The home features 4 bedrooms plus a versatile bonus space—ideal for a home office, creative studio, or even a home-based business. Inside, you’ll find fresh new carpet and interior paint, giving the home a clean and welcoming feel. The kitchen includes a center island, all appliances, and a window overlooking the woods, bringing natural light and tranquil views into the heart of the home. Step outside onto the expansive deck and take in the peaceful scenery—an ideal spot for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or simply enjoying the privacy and sounds of the creek below. The property also includes a 24x30 shop, perfect for hobbies, projects, storage, or extra workspace. This is truly a retreat-like setting—a place to escape, unwind, and enjoy the beauty of nature, while still being close to town with easy freeway access for everyday convenience.

6. 1993-06-07
   soldstatus $199,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,423 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,364 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,941/yr (+$245/mo · 206.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,423
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,793
• − Management: −$2,793
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable loss: −$12,634
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,032
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oregon City SD 62
• NCES district ID: 4109330
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $64,272
• Composite: 26.65/100
• National rank: #7169
• State rank: #40 of 58 in OR

Livability — Beavercreek

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #249
• US rank: #17150

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 57,432
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 57,526
• Household income: $103,573
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -624.55%
• Current HPI: 301.9661
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+126.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $449,900 RMLS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $399,900 RMLS
• 1993-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $199,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,423 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.