206 Smith Rd · Jamaica, VT 05343

$89,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,902 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 1970 Poor condition 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a project? Featuring a drilled well, existing septic, electric, and driveway, you have a good start for a new build, renovation or a combination of the two. The cabin has been added onto many times, making room for a growing family. The land is mostly level, with some nice plantings and the house sits back a little distance from the neighbors. The well is being shared, electric is run from this property to the neighbor. There is some clean up on this property, but more around the neighborhood. Fix it up for a great ski crash pad, or do more and enjoy an affordable primary. This is an estate so no SPIR is available. The rooms beyond the staircase should not be walked on for safe

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 69 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Dirt driveway
• Utilities: Drilled well water; Septic system; Circuit breaker electric service; High-speed internet available; Cable and telephone available
• Home design: Cabin-style home; Existing construction; Red exterior color
• Construction: Built in 1970; Wood frame construction with wood siding; Metal roof; Full basement (walkout)
• Exterior features: Country setting; Level and open lot with slight grade; Near schools; Dirt driveway; Dead-end, unpaved/public maintained road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level; Refrigerator; Gas range
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedrooms (two); Second-floor bedrooms (two)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating
• Interior features: Eight total rooms; Full, unfinished basement with interior access and walkout; Dirt floor areas in the basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer; Dryer; On-demand water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $555 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Windham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Windham County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.48%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $477,402
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
168 Howard Rd	0.50mi	4/2.5	1,986 (+4%)	10mo	$499,000	$251	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $20,830
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $63,781
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05343

• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $5,565
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,336
• After-tax cash flow: $5,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior siding, HVAC system, and landscaping. Significant improvements are needed to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major exterior siding — Large sections of siding are missing or damaged.
• Major flooring — The flooring is old and in need of replacement.
• Major interior walls/paint — The walls and paint are in poor condition, indicating a lack of recent maintenance.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — The HVAC system appears old and may need replacement or repair.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance, detracting from the curb appeal of the property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the property's appearance and value.
• Both exterior siding repair/replacement — Repairing or replacing the siding will enhance the property's curb appeal and value.
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape will enhance the property's curb appeal and value.
• Both interior paint and minor repairs — Fresh paint and minor repairs will improve the interior's appearance and value.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape will enhance the property's curb appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of significant damage and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Large sections of siding are missing or damaged.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring is old and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · The walls and paint are in poor condition, indicating a lack of recent maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · The HVAC system appears old and may need replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance, detracting from the curb appeal of the property.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the property's appearance and value. ↑
• Both exterior siding repair/replacement — Repairing or replacing the siding will enhance the property's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape will enhance the property's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both interior paint and minor repairs — Fresh paint and minor repairs will improve the interior's appearance and value. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape will enhance the property's curb appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Jamaica

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,003

Population outlook (Windham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,432 people
• By 2030: 38,472 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 33,954 · -16.0%
• By 2050: 29,774 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 22,351 · -44.7%
• By 2100: 15,961 · -60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Windham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.7) · D 69.6% · R 26.9% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: 48.1pp · 2024: 42.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.7 2020: D+47.3 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+49.2 2008: D+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.93%
• Current HPI: 170.5724
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $89,900 PrimeMLS