1409 Ridge Rd · Tavares, FL 32778

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1977 4,000 sqft lot $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Great beginning to 2026! Own your own lot! 1344 sq feet of spacious living in this updated 2 bedroom 2 bath home in a 55+ golf cart community. Take your golf cart to downtown Tavares for fine dining or great fun entertainment along Dora Lake. AND you own your lot with low HOA fees. Close to Lake Dora and Chain of Lakes. Not only is this a Best Buy, metal roof maintained, newer AC by Goodman and newer wiring and all duct work updated. Large shed with washer and dryer. No, absolutely no soft floors. This home is in great condition and move in ready with a few furniture pieces. Enjoy your morning cup of coffee on front porch and watch the sun come up.

Key facts

• Newer ac
• Own your lot
• Golf cart community

Tags

• GOLF CART COMMUNITY
• OWN YOUR LOT
• METAL ROOF MAINTAINED
• NEWER AC
• NEWER WIRING
• LARGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $694 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $125k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,659 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.82%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $26,153
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $88,836
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $694

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,122

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
465 Oak Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	3.0	1550	$1,750	$1.13	23d	1	0.48mi
1585 Dead River Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,990	$1.89	23d	1	0.50mi
30024 Tavares Ridge Blvd Unit 62 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,000	$1.75	23d	1	0.55mi
741 W Rosewood Ln Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,195	$1.06	2d	1	0.69mi
459 E Rosewood Ln #157 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	21d	1	0.74mi
500 E Rosewood Ln Unit 154 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,650	$1.45	23d	1	0.76mi
123 N Lake Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,595	$1.42	23d	1	0.85mi
1604 Wynford Cir Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,900	$1.02	17d	1	0.89mi
1605 Wynford Cir Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	1817	$2,200	$1.21	23d	1	0.92mi
2106 Shantiniketan Blvd Unit B6 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	4d	1	1.12mi
615 Juniper Way Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	17d	1	1.26mi
3224 Manatee Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,600	$1.02	4d	1	1.32mi
4721 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,000	$1.46	14d	1	1.41mi
4659 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,125	$1.21	4d	1	1.43mi
4950 Marsh Harbor Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$2,050	$1.67	3d	1	1.46mi
4567 Barbuda Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,150	$1.58	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $124,900
3. 2026-02-21
   price $149,500
4. 2026-01-07
   listed $156,900 Active
5. 2012-09-26
   listed $54,900
6. 2004-08-24
   soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $6,760
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,623
• After-tax cash flow: $6,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+140.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $149,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $156,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-26 Listed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $156 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.