389 Keystone Dr · Summerfield, NC 27358

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 1985 0.92 ac lot ↓ 50% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MULTIPLE OFFERS! SELLER WILL BE REVIEWING ALL OFFERS ON 05/18/26. SUBMIT YOUR HIGHEST AND BEST OFFER TODAY! Lot lending information attached in pictures and disclosures. Prime lot located in a sought-after area with strong growth and appeal. This Summerfield property in Rockingham County presents the perfect canvas for your future home or investment project. Existing mobile home is a fixer upper, and is being sold as-is. Enjoy the benefits of location, convenience, and endless possibilities.

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.92 acre
• HOA & community: Located in the Old Mill Estates subdivision; No homeowners association (listed as 'No')

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power for heating
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Built in 1985; Existing structure
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Private water source; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Living room on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central cooling; Electric heating (no other heating system listed)
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 1.5% in Summerfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#62 in NC, #4,822 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockingham County Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #120 of 178 in NC (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockingham County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.83%
• DSCR: 4.06
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
382 Haynes Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+12%)	15mo	$170,000	$152	48
343 Old Mill Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+14%)	19mo	$119,000	$104	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $64,549
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.38×
• Total profit: $154,931
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27358

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $207/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $1,205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $559

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,247	-5% $1,226	+0% $1,205	+5% $1,183	+10% $1,162
Rent	-10% $1,040	-5% $1,122	+0% $1,205	+5% $1,287	+10% $1,369
Rate	-1.0pp $1,242	-0.5pp $1,224	base $1,205	+0.5pp $1,185	+1.0pp $1,165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   price $75,000
3. 2026-05-11
   price $99,999
4. 2026-05-01
   price $124,999
5. 2026-04-30
   price $129,999
6. 2026-04-15
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $207 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$408/yr (+$34/mo · 197.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$207
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,001
• − Management: −$2,001
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $14,042
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,370
• After-tax cash flow: $11,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockingham County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703990
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,914
• Composite: 32.6/100
• National rank: #5673
• State rank: #120 of 178 in NC

Livability — Summerfield

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #4822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,283
• Population (ZIP): 15,283

Population outlook (Rockingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,103 people
• By 2030: 83,763 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 76,082 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 68,106 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 52,531 · -39.7%
• By 2100: 39,871 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.7% · R 67.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.9pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+30.0 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.58%
• Current HPI: 237.0528
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-50.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $75,000 Triad MLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $99,999 Triad MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $124,999 Triad MLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $129,999 Triad MLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $149,900 Triad MLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $207 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.