640 Simpson St · St. Paul, MN 55104

$310,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,251 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1915 3,267 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic Hamline Midway 2 story Craftsman featuring built-ins, hardwood floors, natural woodwork, a window seat, original pantry, updated bathroom, great closets, and 3 bedrooms on one level. Newer vinyl siding, front porch and roof. Close to public transportation, Hamline university, restaurants, coffee, light rail, soccer, and more!

Key facts

• 3,267 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1915

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hamline Elementary School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #755 of 857 statewide, top 88%, 303 students, 84% FRL); Murray Middle School (math 19% / reading 40%, grade F, #204 of 258 statewide, top 80%, 538 students, 64% FRL); Como Park Senior High (math 8% / reading 42%, grade F, #375 of 471 statewide, top 81%, 1,078 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $280,473 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-45,606
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-37,569
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$367 /mo · $4,400/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,685

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $270	-5% $182	+0% $94	+5% $6	+10% $-81
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-17	+0% $94	+5% $205	+10% $316
Rate	-1.0pp $250	-0.5pp $173	base $94	+0.5pp $14	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1555 Selby Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$4,394	$3.89	0d	6	0.90mi
150 Snelling Ave N St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$2,598	$3.51	3d	8	0.99mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-18
   historical Contingent - Inspection 1193-char remark
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $310,000 Active 1193-char remark
3. 2026-05-10
   historical $310,000 1193-char remark
4. 2024-11-01
   historical
5. 2024-10-11
   listed $324,900 Active
6. 2024-10-09
   historical
7. 2022-07-20
   soldstatus $285,000
8. 2022-07-05
   soldstatus $285,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Classic Hamline Midway 2 story Craftsman featuring built-ins, hardwood floors, natural woodwork, a window seat, original pantry, updated bathroom, great closets, and 3 bedrooms on one level. Newer vinyl siding, front porch and roof. Close to public transportation, Hamline university, restaurants, coffee, light rail, soccer, and more!

9. 2022-06-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Classic Hamline Midway 2 story Craftsman featuring built-ins, hardwood floors, natural woodwork, a window seat, original pantry, updated bathroom, great closets, and 3 bedrooms on one level. Newer vinyl siding, front porch and roof. Close to public transportation, Hamline university, restaurants, coffee, light rail, soccer, and more!

10. 2022-06-03
    listed $299,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Classic Hamline Midway 2 story Craftsman featuring built-ins, hardwood floors, natural woodwork, a window seat, original pantry, updated bathroom, great closets, and 3 bedrooms on one level. Newer vinyl siding, front porch and roof. Close to public transportation, Hamline university, restaurants, coffee, light rail, soccer, and more!

11. 2022-06-01
    historical $299,900

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Classic Hamline Midway 2 story Craftsman featuring built-ins, hardwood floors, natural woodwork, a window seat, original pantry, updated bathroom, great closets, and 3 bedrooms on one level. Newer vinyl siding, front porch and roof. Close to public transportation, Hamline university, restaurants, coffee, light rail, soccer, and more!

12. 2009-05-21
    soldstatus $138,850
13. 2009-04-21
    soldstatus $138,850
14. 2009-04-05
    historical
15. 2009-03-20
    listed $136,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,400 · $367/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,400 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,400
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,693
• − Management: −$2,693
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$4,061
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$975
• After-tax cash flow: $2,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+126.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $310,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Coming Soon $310,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-11 Listed $324,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-09 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-05 Sold (MLS) $285,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-13 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-03 Listed $299,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-01 Coming Soon $299,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $138,850 Public Records
• 2009-04-21 Sold (MLS) $138,850 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-20 Listed $136,800 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,400 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.