3004 Avenue D · Bay City, TX 77414

$74,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2014 2,265 sqft lot $70/sqft · 34% below area Est $113k · 34% under ↓ 40% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3004 Avenue D — a move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with a solid layout and a great foundation, perfect as a turnkey home or a strong investment opportunity. Inside, a comfortable living space with great natural light flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with plenty of cabinet storage. Out back, you'll find ample space for outdoor enjoyment, entertaining, or future projects. Whether you're a first-time buyer or an investor, this is a great opportunity. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Great natural light
• Move in ready
• 2,265 sq ft lot

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• GREAT NATURAL LIGHT
• PLENTY OF CABINET STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2014; Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Subdivision setting; Backs to greenbelt/park; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,874 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.83%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,000
• List price: $74,999
• Delta: -26.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3200 Moore Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (+1%)	6mo	$69,000	$63	70
2212 Rugeley St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,003 (-7%)	5mo	$59,900	$60	48
2217 Linwood Ln	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,212 (+12%)	3mo	$158,500	$131	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $3,651
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $24,618
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 620
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,089 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,320/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $782

Max offer price $74,999

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2604 Avenue K Bay City, TX	2.0	2.0	963	$1,415	$1.47	43d	1	0.58mi
2600 Avenue K Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,665	$1.30	43d	1	0.63mi
1401 Thompson Dr Bay City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,030	$1.12	43d	4	0.71mi
1700 Baywood Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,007	$1.25	43d	57	0.74mi
2206 Avenue L Unit L Bay City, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$1,075	$1.30	43d	1	0.84mi
1901 Palm Village Blvd Bay City, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$849	$0.89	43d	1	1.08mi
5001 Avenue F Bay City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$798	$0.74	43d	15	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $74,999 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $74,999 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $74,999 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-05-17
   listed $74,999 Active 538-char remark
5. 2026-05-17
   historical
6. 2026-05-12
   price $79,900
7. 2026-05-05
   listed $82,500 Active
8. 2026-05-04
   historical
9. 2026-04-27
   historical
10. 2026-03-10
    listed $99,000 Active
11. 2026-03-10
    historical
12. 2026-03-06
    price $120,000
13. 2026-02-19
    listed $135,000 Active
14. 2021-07-30
    historical
15. 2021-07-07
    listed $119,950 Active
16. 2021-06-30
    historical
17. 2021-06-07
    price $119,950
18. 2021-05-25
    listed $124,950 Active
19. 2012-02-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,320 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,320 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$2,320
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,045
• − Management: −$1,045
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,895
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$455
• After-tax cash flow: $2,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listed $74,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $82,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2021-07-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-07-07 Listed $119,950 HARMLS
• 2021-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-06-07 Price Changed $119,950 HARMLS
• 2021-05-25 Listed $124,950 HARMLS
• 2012-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+20.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,320 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.