4317 Doe Ln · Show Low, AZ 85901

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1986 6,969 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the desirable Fawnbrook community, this charming manufactured home offers the perfect mountain retreat with convenient access to local shopping, dining, recreation, and year-round White Mountain activities. Don't let the square footage fool you, this home lives larger than expected with a comfortable, functional layout and inviting living spaces. Several updates have been completed in recent years, adding to the home's appeal and move-in-ready feel. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this property delivers mountain living at an affordable price.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 1986
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot accessed via city-maintained road; Approximately 0.16 acres; Subdivision: Fawn Brook
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Utilities: City water (metered by City of Show Low); Public sewer; Electric with individual meter; Propane available (leased tank); Navopache
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Single wide; One story
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Other foundation; Metal pitched and rolled roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered deck; Property has trees; Utility building; Chain link fence; Private adjoining property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Kitchen/dining room combo
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom downstairs
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: Full bath with tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Bottled gas; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Master bedroom located downstairs; Laminate flooring; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $155k implies a 1309% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.30%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,424
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3860 S White Mountain Rd	0.25mi	1/1.0 (-1)	695 (-4%)	7mo	$31,000	$45	70
3860 S White Mountain Rd	0.36mi	2/1.0	784 (+8%)	1mo	$65,000	$83	69
3851 Vacation Village Dr #416	0.41mi	2/1.0	735 (+1%)	19mo	$260,000	$354	63
3851 Vacation Village Dr Unit Woodfield RV Resort 4	0.29mi	2/2.0	730 (+0%)	24mo	$265,000	$363	62
3860 S White Mountain Rd #92	0.25mi	2/1.0	672 (-8%)	23mo	$36,500	$54	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,757
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $24,075
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $741/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,189

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $155,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   status $180,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 621-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $180,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $741 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$282/yr (+$23/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$741
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,550
• − Management: −$1,550
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,566
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$376
• After-tax cash flow: $3,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1536.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Coming Soon $180,000 WMMLS
• 1990-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 1985-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $741 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.