4304 Drake Dr · Bismarck, ND 58503

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 2012 $526/mo HOA · 28% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Updated sink
• Fenced in yard

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED SINK
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FENCED IN YARD
• ADDITIONAL IDEAL STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $526 that includes water, sewer and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad; Paved off-street parking; No garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle (asphalt) roof; No basement listed
• Exterior features: Porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Electric cooktop; Oven; Microwave; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (bedrooms included)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Window treatments; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.54%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $48,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4309 Claridge Loop	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	13mo	$49,900	$45	79
4319 Patriot Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	12mo	$50,000	$45	79
4206 Patriot Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+12%)	2mo	$79,900	$66	75
4202 Patriot Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+12%)	11mo	$65,000	$53	68
4755 British Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+12%)	1mo	$54,000	$44	62
2500 Centennial Rd #232	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (-6%)	6mo	$17,900	$18	58
4515 Bunker Dr. Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+12%)	14mo	$75,000	$62	57
4773 British Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+12%)	8mo	$115,000	$95	56
4731 British Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+12%)	11mo	$55,000	$45	54
5051 Redcoat Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+12%)	10mo	$56,000	$46	52
2500 Centennial Rd #11	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-10%)	10mo	$12,000	$12	49
2500 Centennial Rd. Rd #285	0.38mi	3/1.5	924 (-15%)	12mo	$32,000	$35	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $32,226
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $118,813
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $188/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$526
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $577	-5% $556	+0% $534	+5% $513	+10% $492
Rent	-10% $384	-5% $459	+0% $534	+5% $609	+10% $684
Rate	-1.0pp $572	-0.5pp $553	base $534	+0.5pp $515	+1.0pp $495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3504 French St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	966	$1,795	$1.86	22d	1	0.61mi
3103 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,860	$1.72	22d	6	1.11mi
3009 43rd Ave NE Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,024	$1.93	22d	22	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $526 · $6,312/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $75,000 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-05-29
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $188 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $735 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$547/yr (+$46/mo · 291.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$188
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$6,312
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,889
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,413
• After-tax cash flow: $4,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $75,000 GNMLS