130 Reed Cir · Napa, CA 94558

$305,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured · 75 Days on market

Built 2005 $293/sqft · 11% above area Est $275k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Grandview Mobile Estates, a nicely maintained mobile home park where comfort and relaxed wine country living come together. This bright and inviting home offers a large primary bedroom with a private en-suite bathroom. A generously sized second and third bedroom along with a second bathroom, and a dedicated laundry room add to the home's convenience and comfort. The high sloping cathedral ceiling gives this home an open and arity feel as it enhances its vertical space and increases natural light. Other features include HVAC system and 2-Car tandem parking. Outside, the low maintenance yard and storage shed let you enjoy the California outdoors without the upkeep, and when you're ready - connect with neighbors at the community inground pool and clubhouse, which are just steps away! Come take a look!

Key facts

• Low maintenance yard
• Storage shed
• Hvac system

Tags

• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• HIGH SLOPING CATHEDRAL CEILING
• HVAC SYSTEM
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $305k).
• Recommended offer: $287k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.0% in Napa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.33%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,744
• List price: $305,000
• Delta: 11.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
236 Reed Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (0%)	1mo	$240,000	$231	92
206 Shirley Ct	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,064 (+2%)	3mo	$249,000	$234	68
201 Julie Pl	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+2%)	17mo	$275,000	$260	63
5 Falcon Crest Cir	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+2%)	23mo	$405,000	$384	55
107 Mobile Ln	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,128 (+8%)	7mo	$170,000	$151	54
10 Hacienda Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-4%)	18mo	$199,000	$199	45
18 Hacienda Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+6%)	14mo	$265,000	$241	44
60 Falcon Crest Cir	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (+11%)	23mo	$340,000	$296	40
14 Falcon Crest Cir	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+11%)	24mo	$339,000	$294	37
50 Falcon Crest Cir	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (+13%)	24mo	$339,000	$288	33
46 Hacienda Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	900 (-14%)	13mo	$80,000	$89	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $4,960
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $47,106
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94558

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,554 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $742/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$746
• Net cashflow: $1,020

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,264

Max offer price $305,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4412 Moffitt Dr Unit 4412 Napa, CA	4.0	2.0	1324	$3,700	$2.79	43d	1	0.36mi
3663 Solano Ave Napa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1122	$3,150	$2.81	14d	7	0.83mi
3225 Macfadden St Napa, CA	3.0	2.0	1375	$3,300	$2.40	43d	1	1.40mi
129 Firefly Ln Napa, CA	3.0	4.0	1496	$3,800	$2.54	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $305,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $305,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $305,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $305,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $305,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $305,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $305,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,000 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $305,000 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-04-04
    listed $305,000 Active 820-char remark

    Show marketing remark (820 chars)

    Welcome to Grandview Mobile Estates, a nicely maintained mobile home park where comfort and relaxed wine country living come together. This bright and inviting home offers a large primary bedroom with a private en-suite bathroom. A generously sized second and third bedroom along with a second bathroom, and a dedicated laundry room add to the home's convenience and comfort. The high sloping cathedral ceiling gives this home an open and arity feel as it enhances its vertical space and increases natural light. Other features include HVAC system and 2-Car tandem parking. Outside, the low maintenance yard and storage shed let you enjoy the California outdoors without the upkeep, and when you're ready - connect with neighbors at the community inground pool and clubhouse, which are just steps away! Come take a look!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $742 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,318 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,576/yr (+$131/mo · 212.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 43% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$742
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,412
• − Management: −$3,412
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable income: $7,604
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,825
• After-tax cash flow: $10,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napa Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,007
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Napa

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7435

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Napa, CA
• County: Napa County · 120,669 people
• City population: 91,371
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,657
• Household income: $113,269
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 15% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -842.94%
• Current HPI: 296.0661
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.50%
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $305,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $742 · -17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.