516 Elk Cir · Milton, NY 12020

$299,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,480 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1989 2,613 sqft lot Est $302k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

IMMACULATE TOWNHOUSE W/ 2 BEDROOMS, 2 1/2 BATHS, PERGO FLOORS, FRESH PAINT, ALL APPLIANCES, STACKABLE WASHER DRYER, HOT TUB ON DECK ***PRUDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL SERVICES ADDENDUMS*** -- Excellent Condition

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Laundry closet
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LAUNDRY CLOSET
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• CERAMIC TILE SHOWER
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Paved driveway parking; Total of 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Townhouse; Entry level on first floor
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle (asphalt) roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Paved driveway; Back yard fencing; Landscaped, level and cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level; Additional bedroom(s) on second level
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on second level; One half bathroom on first level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Ceramic tile bath; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in bathroom and in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-567/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.4% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#652 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Geyser Road Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 348 students, 34% FRL); Maple Avenue Middle School (math 46% / reading 69%, grade B, #187 of 729 statewide, top 26%, 1,392 students, 27% FRL); Ballston Spa Senior High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,249 students, 32% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ballston Spa Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $166k; list at $300k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $246,239 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,920
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Antler Ct	0.11mi	2/2.5	1,480 (0%)	2mo	$330,000	$223	93
214 Whitetail Ct	0.10mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,480 (0%)	1mo	$330,000	$223	86
32 Deer Run Dr	0.15mi	2/2.5	1,480 (0%)	10mo	$325,000	$220	85
536 Elk Cir	0.05mi	2/2.5	1,480 (0%)	18mo	$285,000	$193	83
89 Deer Run Dr	0.03mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,480 (0%)	9mo	$275,000	$186	82
310 Caribou Ct	0.08mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,480 (0%)	6mo	$302,000	$204	82
515 Elk Cir	0.10mi	2/2.5	1,480 (0%)	18mo	$240,000	$162	80
44 Deer Run Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,480 (0%)	7mo	$308,000	$208	80
110 Deer Run Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,480 (0%)	11mo	$305,000	$206	75
408 Antler Ct	0.14mi	2/2.5	1,480 (0%)	23mo	$270,000	$182	75
102 Deer Run Dr	0.16mi	2/2.5	1,480 (0%)	23mo	$276,000	$186	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-38,603
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $21,692
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12020

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.3%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,538/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,522

Max offer price $291,558

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $38	+0% $-47	+5% $-132	+10% $-217
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-144	+0% $-47	+5% $50	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $29	base $-47	+0.5pp $-125	+1.0pp $-204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
91 Hutchins Rd Ballston Spa, NY	2.0	2.0	1316	$3,050	$2.32	15d	7	0.69mi
100 Madison Dr Ballston Spa, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1145	$2,633	$2.30	15d	41	0.98mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $299,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-05
   listed $299,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,538 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,303 · $359/mo
• Expected delta: +$765/yr (+$64/mo · 21.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$3,538
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,364
• − Management: −$2,364
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,378
• After-tax cash flow: $811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballston Spa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,705
• Composite: 48.12/100
• National rank: #2184
• State rank: #289 of 590 in NY

Livability — Milton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #652
• US rank: #11825

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,937
• Household income: $107,112
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 607.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 346.5996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.26%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+319.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $299,900 Global MLS
• 2007-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $165,500 Public Records
• 2002-12-13 Sold (MLS) $88,500 Global MLS
• 2002-11-14 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2002-11-01 Listed $85,500 Global MLS
• 2001-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-31 Sold (MLS) $73,000 Global MLS
• 2001-04-17 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2001-04-12 Listed $74,500 Global MLS
• 1994-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,538 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.