22789 Creekwood Dr · Emerald Bay, TX 75762

$149,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Condo · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $7/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience relaxed East Texas living in this newly built home nestled in the peaceful Lakeway Harbor community of Flint. This inviting two-bedroom residence features a modern, efficient layout and a bright, welcoming design throughout. Each room is equipped with its own mini-split system, giving you customizable comfort and energy-efficient climate control year-round. Enjoy being just a short walk from Lake Palestine, where you can take in the views, fish, launch a kayak, or unwind by the water. The community is known for its quiet atmosphere and natural surroundings, offering a refreshing retreat without sacrificing convenience. Located only a short drive from local schools, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home combines peaceful living with easy access to town. If you’re looking for a clean, modern new construction in a lake-area neighborhood, this property is one you’ll want to see. It is the responsibility of the buyer, or the buyers agent to perform their own due diligence on all listing information. Buyer and Buyer's Agent to verify all MLS data including legal description but not limited to measurements and schools.

Key facts

• Quiet atmosphere
• Mini-split system
• Easy access to town

Tags

• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEM
• SHORT WALK FROM LAKE PALESTINE
• QUIET ATMOSPHERE
• NATURAL SURROUNDINGS
• EASY ACCESS TO TOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding or upon completion; Listing sold by builder (special listing condition)
• Financial info: Loan types accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with annual fee; Annual HOA fee: $80 (includes management fees)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: City water; Septic; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential condominium (detached); One story; New construction completed in 2026
• Construction: Composition/shingle roof; New construction (2026)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Private entrance; Level lot in a subdivision; Easements: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with island and breakfast bar; Pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet; Second bedroom on main level with walk-in closet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (primary bath on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fans; Wall-mounted cooling units; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Decorative lighting; Pantry; Vaulted ceilings; One living area; Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry equipment listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.9% in Emerald Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#293 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bullard El (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 434 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,808 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-18,391
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,325
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75762

• Home prices YoY: -28.4%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,321

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22712 Creekwood Dr Flint, TX	2.0	1.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	13d	1	0.11mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,999 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,999 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,999 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,999 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,999 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,999 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,999 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,999 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,999 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,999 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,999 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,999 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,999 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,999 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,999 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $149,999 Active

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    Experience relaxed East Texas living in this newly built home nestled in the peaceful Lakeway Harbor community of Flint. This inviting two-bedroom residence features a modern, efficient layout and a bright, welcoming design throughout. Each room is equipped with its own mini-split system, giving you customizable comfort and energy-efficient climate control year-round. Enjoy being just a short walk from Lake Palestine, where you can take in the views, fish, launch a kayak, or unwind by the water. The community is known for its quiet atmosphere and natural surroundings, offering a refreshing retreat without sacrificing convenience. Located only a short drive from local schools, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home combines peaceful living with easy access to town. If you’re looking for a clean, modern new construction in a lake-area neighborhood, this property is one you’ll want to see. It is the responsibility of the buyer, or the buyers agent to perform their own due diligence on all listing information. Buyer and Buyer's Agent to verify all MLS data including legal description but not limited to measurements and schools.

18. 2026-05-19
    listed $149,999 Active 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    Experience relaxed East Texas living in this newly built home nestled in the peaceful Lakeway Harbor community of Flint. This inviting two-bedroom residence features a modern, efficient layout and a bright, welcoming design throughout. Each room is equipped with its own mini-split system, giving you customizable comfort and energy-efficient climate control year-round. Enjoy being just a short walk from Lake Palestine, where you can take in the views, fish, launch a kayak, or unwind by the water. The community is known for its quiet atmosphere and natural surroundings, offering a refreshing retreat without sacrificing convenience. Located only a short drive from local schools, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home combines peaceful living with easy access to town. If you’re looking for a clean, modern new construction in a lake-area neighborhood, this property is one you’ll want to see. It is the responsibility of the buyer, or the buyers agent to perform their own due diligence on all listing information. Buyer and Buyer's Agent to verify all MLS data including legal description but not limited to measurements and schools.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$325
• After-tax cash flow: $1,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This newly built townhouse in the peaceful Lakeway Harbor community of Flint is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern, efficient layout and a bright, welcoming design throughout. The home is move-in ready and offers a high ROI with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers and tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Emerald Bay

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #6721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,704
• Household income: $90,057
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 98.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Serbian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.39%
• Current HPI: 197.2375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $149,999 GTAR
• 2026-05-19 Listed $149,999 NTREIS