48 Hickory Bnd · Riverside, TX 77320

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1978 8,533 sqft lot $175/sqft · at area comps Est $142k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 48 Hickory Bend at Shorewood Forest! This residence has undergone a comprehensive restoration from top to bottom. The second-story back patio offers an ideal setting for morning coffee with beautiful views of the creek. The upper floor features a spacious living area with abundant natural light that seamlessly connects to the dining and kitchen spaces. Two bedrooms are situated on this level, sharing a full bathroom. The first floor includes a generously sized room with a full en-suite bathroom. Covered porch offers opportunities to relax or entertain. Shorewood Forest, situated in Riverside, is a residential community recognized for its balanced integration of natural beauty, peaceful surroundings, and convenient amenities.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Spacious living area
• Convenient amenities

Tags

• COMPREHENSIVE RESTORATION
• SECOND-STORY BACK PATIO
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• COVERED PORCH
• CONVENIENT AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.4% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,150 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Huntsville ISD (town): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #621 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 518 active listings in the ZIP; 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,058
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -1.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Hickory Bnd	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	910 (+14%)	20mo	$109,000	$120	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-12,782
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,195
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77320

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 518
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,696/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,182

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $198	+0% $158	+5% $118	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $103	+0% $158	+5% $212	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $228	-0.5pp $194	base $158	+0.5pp $122	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 91 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 90 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $140,000 746-char remark

    Show marketing remark (746 chars)

    Welcome to 48 Hickory Bend at Shorewood Forest! This residence has undergone a comprehensive restoration from top to bottom. The second-story back patio offers an ideal setting for morning coffee with beautiful views of the creek. The upper floor features a spacious living area with abundant natural light that seamlessly connects to the dining and kitchen spaces. Two bedrooms are situated on this level, sharing a full bathroom. The first floor includes a generously sized room with a full en-suite bathroom. Covered porch offers opportunities to relax or entertain. Shorewood Forest, situated in Riverside, is a residential community recognized for its balanced integration of natural beauty, peaceful surroundings, and convenient amenities.

19. 2026-03-01
    listed $145,000 Active 746-char remark

    Show marketing remark (746 chars)

    Welcome to 48 Hickory Bend at Shorewood Forest! This residence has undergone a comprehensive restoration from top to bottom. The second-story back patio offers an ideal setting for morning coffee with beautiful views of the creek. The upper floor features a spacious living area with abundant natural light that seamlessly connects to the dining and kitchen spaces. Two bedrooms are situated on this level, sharing a full bathroom. The first floor includes a generously sized room with a full en-suite bathroom. Covered porch offers opportunities to relax or entertain. Shorewood Forest, situated in Riverside, is a residential community recognized for its balanced integration of natural beauty, peaceful surroundings, and convenient amenities.

20. 2024-11-12
    historical
21. 2024-10-21
    price $199,000
22. 2024-10-21
    price
23. 2024-09-19
    listed Active
24. 2024-09-19
    listed $205,000 Active
25. 2022-12-07
    soldstatus
26. 2021-12-27
    historical
27. 2021-04-29
    price $97,000
28. 2020-12-23
    listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$866/yr (+$72/mo · 51.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,696
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,327
• − Management: −$1,327
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$381
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$91
• After-tax cash flow: $1,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824030
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,597
• Composite: 25.71/100
• National rank: #7383
• State rank: #621 of 826 in TX

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1150
• US rank: #20204

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverside, TX
• County: Walker County · 75,669 people
• City population: 634
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,152
• Household income: $55,663
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1030.0

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 77,602 people
• By 2030: 82,007 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 90,436 · +16.5%
• By 2050: 100,240 · +29.2%
• By 2075: 123,667 · +59.4%
• By 2100: 135,073 · +74.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.6% · R 69.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.48%
• Current HPI: 190.199
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+40.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-12 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $199,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-09-19 Listed $205,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2022-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-04-29 Price Changed $97,000 HARMLS
• 2020-12-23 Listed $100,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,696 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.