1315 Welch Blvd · Flint, MI 48504

$45,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 256 Days on market

Built 1923 8,276 sqft lot Est $55k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1923

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1,378 above-grade finished square feet

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One-and-a-half story; Ground-level entry with steps; Stucco exterior
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: Paved road frontage; Lot approximately 0.19 acres (60 x 134.25)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central air
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 11.5% in Flint — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Flint School District (urban): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #714 of 760 in MI (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.66%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $55,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1502 Lavender Ave	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,430 (+4%)	10mo	$80,000	$56	74
1909 Welch Blvd	0.31mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,435 (+4%)	4mo	$28,600	$20	71
2112 Winona St	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,292 (-6%)	1mo	$30,000	$23	65
617 W Witherbee St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,330 (-4%)	4mo	$15,525	$12	62
2917 Mallery St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (+8%)	4mo	$85,000	$57	59
2730 Berkley St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,427 (+4%)	6mo	$69,900	$49	58
1801 Clement St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (+4%)	2mo	$41,000	$29	57
506 Green St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,312 (-5%)	1mo	$52,000	$40	56
2025 Milbourne Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,212 (-12%)	10mo	$15,000	$12	54
501 W Witherbee St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,274 (-8%)	3mo	$39,000	$31	52
3307 Mackin Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,345 (-2%)	9mo	$104,000	$77	50
317 W Witherbee St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,196 (-13%)	6mo	$125,000	$105	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $21,941
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $56,850
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48504

• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,018 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,090/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1540 Garland St Flint, MI	3.0	2.5	1344	$1,017	$0.76	21d	1	0.90mi
711 W Dewey St Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	1011	$925	$0.91	21d	1	0.92mi
2428 Norbert St Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	21d	1	1.06mi
2410 Gena Ann Ln Unit GEN2410 Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$895	$0.93	43d	1	1.48mi
2410 Gena Ann Ln Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$895	$0.93	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 255 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 254 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 253 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $45,000 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $45,000 Active 249 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $45,000 Active 248 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $45,000 Active 247 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $45,000 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 245 DOM
11. 2025-11-09
    status Active
12. 2025-11-09
    status Active
13. 2025-11-08
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
14. 2025-11-08
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2025-09-27
    listed $45,000 Active
16. 2025-09-26
    listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,090 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,090 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,090
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$977
• − Management: −$977
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $5,114
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,227
• After-tax cash flow: $4,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flint School District
• NCES district ID: 2614520
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $25,954
• Composite: 10.97/100
• National rank: #14642
• State rank: #714 of 760 in MI

Livability — Flint

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4946

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flint, MI
• City population: 93,814
• Population (ZIP): 23,873

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 24% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.67%
• Current HPI: 94.3111
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-09 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-09 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-11-08 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-08 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2025-09-27 Listed $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-26 Listed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,090 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.