581 N Crawford #94 · Dinuba, CA 93618

$32,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Land · 377 Days on market

Built 1978 ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1 bedroom 1 bathroom home located inside Dinuba Downs MHC, a 55+ community. Home features new washer/dryer Community offers: Clubhouse, Swimming Pool and Resident Activities. Call today to find out more.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Swimming pool
• Community pool

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $514 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.1% vs local median 2.7% in Dinuba — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#517 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Dinuba Unified (town): math 26% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #215 of 517 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John F. Kennedy Elementary (494 students, 82% FRL); Washington Intermediate (1,010 students, 81% FRL); Dinuba High (math 27% / reading 63%, grade D-, #425 of 1,170 statewide, top 37%, 2,119 students, 79% FRL).
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $960 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 377 days — a 12% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 377 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.17%
• DSCR: 4.79
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $27,619
• Equity at exit: $4,771

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.43×
• Total profit: $66,546
• Equity at exit: $2,767

Cash invested: $8,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93618

• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $435

Max offer price $32,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $536	-5% $525	+0% $514	+5% $503	+10% $492
Rent	-10% $428	-5% $471	+0% $514	+5% $556	+10% $599
Rate	-1.0pp $530	-0.5pp $522	base $514	+0.5pp $505	+1.0pp $497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,000
• Closing costs: $960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
455 N J St Dinuba, CA	1.0	1.0	598	$1,400	$2.34	3d	1	0.80mi
186 S L St Unit 1 Dinuba, CA	1.0	1.0	575	$900	$1.57	44d	1	0.87mi
186 S L St Unit 8 Dinuba, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	14d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-14
   price $32,000
3. 2025-10-02
   price $35,900
4. 2025-04-11
   listed $39,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 47 unhealthy d/yr today · 53 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,792
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$1,628
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,041
• − Management: −$1,041
• − Depreciation: −$931
• Taxable income: $6,105
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,465
• After-tax cash flow: $4,698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dinuba Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600065
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 17.00%
• Median HH income: $39,763
• Composite: 36.68/100
• National rank: #4603
• State rank: #215 of 517 in CA

Livability — Dinuba

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #517
• US rank: #17466

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dinuba, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,223

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 87% Two or more races 21% White 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -295.76%
• Current HPI: 360.2783
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-19.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $32,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $35,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-04-11 Listed $39,500 FRESNOMLS

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2017): $40 · -14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.