3525 Water Ridge Ct · Abilene, TX 79602

$246,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily · 89 Days on market

Built 2026 3,055 sqft lot Est $222k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21132146 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Lincoln Plan from our Liberty Series offers the perfect combination of efficiency, comfort, and value. This single-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,510 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Upon entering, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms, a full-size bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room. The heart of the home is the open-concept kitchen, which overlooks the dining area and spacious family room, making it perfect for hosting or everyday living. Toward the back of the home, the primary suite provides a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. Access to the primary

Key facts

• 3,055 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $246k).
• Recommended offer: $232k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.25%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,970
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3525 Water Ridge Ct	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,510 (0%)	1mo	$246,490	$163	99
3518 Silver Springs Ct	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,510 (0%)	1mo	$244,990	$162	99
201 Coyote Creek Ct	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,510 (0%)	1mo	$249,490	$165	99
2901 Autumnwood Way	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,510 (0%)	12mo	$221,990	$147	84
3534 Silver Springs Ct	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,510 (0%)	2mo	$247,990	$164	83
2930 Waterside Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,510 (0%)	11mo	$219,990	$146	83
2925 Autumnwood Way	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,510 (0%)	15mo	$217,490	$144	83
136 Sage Brush Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,510 (0%)	16mo	$195,990	$130	82
214 Sage Brush Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,510 (0%)	15mo	$214,990	$142	81
250 Polasek Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,510 (0%)	9mo	$214,990	$142	79
113 Sage Brush Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,716 (+14%)	6mo	$297,900	$174	65
4590 Maple St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,665 (+10%)	15mo	$185,000	$111	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,909
• Equity at exit: $36,752

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $109,700
• Equity at exit: $21,312

Cash invested: $69,017 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,293
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$308 /mo · $3,697/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,156

Max offer price $246,490

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,622
• Closing costs: $7,395
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 Marlin Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1925	$3,250	$1.69	18d	1	1.20mi
1097 Lytle Creek Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,895	$1.99	13d	1	1.27mi
3933 Wake Forest Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,495	$1.89	22d	1	1.29mi
3933 Wake Forest Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,495	$1.89	20d	1	1.29mi
3926 Duke Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,250	$1.40	7d	1	1.30mi
3601 Purdue Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1172	$2,150	$1.83	2d	1	1.32mi
3674 Radcliff Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	1.5	1155	$2,000	$1.73	13d	1	1.39mi
3533 Grand Ave Abilene, TX	5.0	2.0	1629	$2,200	$1.35	43d	1	1.45mi
801 S 17th St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	13d	1	1.45mi
1709 Bandolero Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$4,500	$3.49	13d	1	1.48mi
801 Big Water Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,800	$1.82	13d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-11
   price $246,490
3. 2025-12-12
   listed $244,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,807
• − Property taxes: −$3,697
• − Insurance: −$1,232
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,647
• − Management: −$2,647
• − Depreciation: −$7,171
• Taxable income: $1,885
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$452
• After-tax cash flow: $5,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $246,490 NTREIS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $244,990 NTREIS