230 Lincoln Ave · Ordway, CO 81063

$167,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $209k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

A quaint 1,779 sqft. , cottage nestled in-between large cottonwoods and pine trees in a quiet small town, with clean rural air. A musician& apos; s dream house with three pianos: an oak finished Mason and Hamlin Model A, piano with a maple bridge, and the & quot; spider, & quot; soundboard tension resonator system for crown retention (soundboard is in excellent condition). The Model A has been, recently tuned to A440 by a highly regarded concert pianist tuner with 32 years of experience from Howes Brothers Piano Company and appraised, with matching bench in excellent condition; for $15,000 or more (will sell for $10,000), a Baldwin Acrosonic Spinet appraised at $2,000 (will sell

Key facts

• Three pianos
• New water heater
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• THREE PIANOS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEWER DUAL PANED STORM WINDOWS
• ALL NEW DOMESTIC PLUMBING
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEWER SHEETROCK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($188/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#233 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Crowley County School District No. Re-1-J (rural): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #150 of 176 in CO (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crowley County Elementary K-6 (math 15% / reading 37%, grade F, #581 of 966 statewide, top 61%, 191 students, 65% FRL); Crowley County Elementary K-6 (math 15% / reading 37%, grade F, #581 of 966 statewide, top 61%, 191 students, 65% FRL); Crowley County Junior And Senior High School (math 15% / reading 32%, grade F, #304 of 381 statewide, top 80%, 188 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Crowley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crowley County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $167k implies a 626% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $128,571 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,308
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 Mitchell Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+8%)	8mo	$226,000	$142	61
229 Sherman Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (-14%)	1mo	$167,000	$133	58
119 W 5th St	0.26mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,311 (-11%)	13mo	$152,000	$116	54
517 Sunset Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+9%)	20mo	$288,000	$180	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-22,081
• Equity at exit: $29,218

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-14,708
• Equity at exit: $21,967

Cash invested: $46,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81063

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,286 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $656/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,266

Max offer price $167,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $63	+0% $16	+5% $-32	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-86	-5% $-35	+0% $16	+5% $66	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $58	base $16	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,750
• Closing costs: $5,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $167,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $167,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $167,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $167,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $167,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $167,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $167,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $167,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $167,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $167,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $167,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $167,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $167,000 Active
18. 2015-04-27
    soldstatus $23,000
19. 2015-04-14
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $918 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$262/yr (+$22/mo · 39.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,429
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,355
• − Property taxes: −$656
• − Insurance: −$835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,234
• − Management: −$1,234
• − Depreciation: −$4,858
• Taxable loss: −$2,744
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$659
• After-tax cash flow: $846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crowley County School District No. Re-1-J
• NCES district ID: 0803210
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $35,031
• Composite: 21.28/100
• National rank: #13663
• State rank: #150 of 176 in CO

Livability — Ordway

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #18425

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ordway, CO
• Population (ZIP): 3,060

Population outlook (Crowley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,612 people
• By 2030: 5,725 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 6,092 · +8.6%
• By 2050: 6,391 · +13.9%
• By 2075: 6,250 · +11.4%
• By 2100: 5,349 · -4.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% Black 7% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crowley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 24.7% · R 72.2% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -27.2pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+47.7 2016: R+48.5 2012: R+25.9 2008: R+27.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.42%
• Current HPI: 211.1097
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+1013.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $167,000 FSBO.com
• 2015-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $656 · +109.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.