2223 Allison Crk · Marion, TX 78124

$232,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $126/sqft · 18% below area Est $284k · 18% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Marion — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 535 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $192,878 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,480
• List price: $232,999
• Delta: -18.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2114 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	0mo	$254,999	$138	100
2223 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	2mo	$232,999	$126	98
714 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,867 (+1%)	1mo	$236,999	$127	96
726 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,867 (+1%)	1mo	$238,999	$128	96
742 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,867 (+1%)	2mo	$238,999	$128	95
2106 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,885 (+2%)	1mo	$235,999	$125	94
143 Petey Pl	0.00mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,886 (+2%)	2mo	$240,999	$128	86
2107 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	0mo	$221,999	$133	83
2208 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	1mo	$221,999	$133	82
705 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	2mo	$219,999	$137	76
738 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-15%)	1mo	$220,999	$140	74
5112 Hagerman	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,667 (-10%)	0mo	$239,999	$144	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-45,883
• Equity at exit: $34,741

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-50,267
• Equity at exit: $20,145

Cash invested: $65,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 43 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.9 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $252,999 ($137/sqft)
• Median days on market: 53 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 535
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$291 /mo · $3,495/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $214,410

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-48	+0% $-128	+5% $-209	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-205	+0% $-128	+5% $-52	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-69	base $-128	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,250
• Closing costs: $6,990
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
747 Thea MDWS Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,214	$1.19	18d	1	0.03mi
738 Thea MDWS Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,600	$1.02	18d	1	0.03mi
1115 Pigeon Ln Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,895	$1.07	24d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $232,999 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $232,999 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $232,999 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $232,999 Price Change 130 DOM
5. 2026-05-06
   price $252,999 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-05-05
   price $252,999 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

7. 2026-04-30
   price $247,999 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-04-29
   price $247,999 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

9. 2026-04-28
   price $248,999 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

10. 2026-04-25
    price $248,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

11. 2026-04-24
    price $228,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

12. 2026-04-24
    price $228,999 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

13. 2026-04-18
    price $235,999 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

14. 2026-04-17
    price $235,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

15. 2026-04-13
    price $255,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

16. 2026-04-13
    status Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

17. 2026-04-10
    price $255,999 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

18. 2026-03-17
    price $265,999 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

19. 2026-03-12
    price $250,999 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

20. 2026-03-11
    historical 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

21. 2026-03-10
    listed $250,999 Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

22. 2026-01-21
    listed $265,999 New 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,052
• − Property taxes: −$3,495
• − Insurance: −$1,165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,778
• Taxable loss: −$5,552
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,332
• After-tax cash flow: $-209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern finishes. It offers a spacious open-concept layout and four bedrooms, making it ideal for families. The property is set to be completed in April 2026, with the potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring improves the look of bathrooms and adds value ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Norma Krueger El Middle Marion Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Marion H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, TX
• County: Guadalupe · 196,854 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,907
• Household income: $82,534
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 47% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $252,999 LERA
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $252,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $247,999 LERA
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $247,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $248,999 LERA
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $248,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $228,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $228,999 LERA
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $235,999 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $235,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $255,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $255,999 LERA
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $265,999 LERA
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $250,999 LERA
• 2026-03-11 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-10 Listed $250,999 Zillow
• 2026-01-21 Listed $265,999 LERA