21524 SE 65th Ave · Hawthorne, FL 32640

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,057 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 261 Days on market

Built 1930

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! This 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath home is conveniently located one block from Shell Elementary, and mere minutes from US Hwy 301 or SR 20. Updated with new flooring throughout in 2023, New AC in 2024 and New Roof in 2024.

Key facts

• New flooring
• New ac
• Conveniently located

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW AC
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.7% in Hawthorne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#376 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 13400% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,488
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $7,749
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32640

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,023/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $271	-5% $232	+0% $194	+5% $156	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $81	-5% $138	+0% $194	+5% $251	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $262	-0.5pp $229	base $194	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 253 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 246 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 245 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 244 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 243 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 242 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    historical $1,000
18. 2026-03-19
    listed $1,000
19. 2025-09-30
    status Active 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! This 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath home is conveniently located one block from Shell Elementary, and mere minutes from US Hwy 301 or SR 20. Updated with new flooring throughout in 2023, New AC in 2024 and New Roof in 2024.

20. 2025-09-30
    price $135,000 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! This 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath home is conveniently located one block from Shell Elementary, and mere minutes from US Hwy 301 or SR 20. Updated with new flooring throughout in 2023, New AC in 2024 and New Roof in 2024.

21. 2025-09-30
    historical 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! This 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath home is conveniently located one block from Shell Elementary, and mere minutes from US Hwy 301 or SR 20. Updated with new flooring throughout in 2023, New AC in 2024 and New Roof in 2024.

22. 2025-09-30
    listed $135,000 Active 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! This 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath home is conveniently located one block from Shell Elementary, and mere minutes from US Hwy 301 or SR 20. Updated with new flooring throughout in 2023, New AC in 2024 and New Roof in 2024.

23. 2024-02-21
    historical 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! This 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath home is conveniently located one block from Shell Elementary, and mere minutes from US Hwy 301 or SR 20. Updated with new flooring throughout in 2023, New AC in 2024 and New Roof in 2024.

24. 2024-02-21
    historical

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! This 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath home is conveniently located one block from Shell Elementary, and mere minutes from US Hwy 301 or SR 20. Updated with new flooring throughout in 2023, New AC in 2024 and New Roof in 2024.

25. 2023-02-27
    listed $125,000 Active
26. 2023-02-22
    listed $125,000 Active 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! This 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath home is conveniently located one block from Shell Elementary, and mere minutes from US Hwy 301 or SR 20. Updated with new flooring throughout in 2023, New AC in 2024 and New Roof in 2024.

27. 2022-03-21
    historical
28. 2022-02-07
    price $120,000
29. 2022-02-07
    price $120,000
30. 2022-01-25
    listed $100,000 Active
31. 2022-01-25
    listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,023 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,023 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,023
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,369
• − Management: −$1,369
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $192
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$46
• After-tax cash flow: $2,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hawthorne

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #6630

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hawthorne, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,780

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 24% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.68%
• Current HPI: 278.0079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Rental Removed $1,000 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-19 Listed for Rent $1,000 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-30 Relisted — realMLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $135,000 realMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $135,000 realMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-02-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-21 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-02-27 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-22 Listed $125,000 realMLS
• 2022-03-21 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2022-02-07 Price Changed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-07 Price Changed $120,000 realMLS
• 2022-01-25 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-25 Listed $100,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+30.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,023 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.