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8410 Bermuda Blue Rd
D Composite 43.51
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +11.3/30.0
  • ARV discount +7.7/15.0
  • Schools +6.9/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.4/10.0
  • Rent growth +3.4/5.0
  • DSCR +3.3/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$239,000

8410 Bermuda Blue Rd · Baytown, TX 77523
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,335 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market
Built 2021 Good condition 6,229 sqft lot 2-car garage $179/sqft · at area comps Est $240k · at est. $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Beautiful home featuring an open-concept layout designed for both comfort and functionality! This well-maintained home offers spacious living areas, neutral modern finishes, and abundant natural light throughout. The kitchen features granite countertops, dark cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a large island overlooking the living and dining areas — perfect for entertaining. The primary suite offers a private bath and generous closet space, while the secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy the fully fenced backyard with plenty of room for outdoor activities.

Key facts

  • Private bath
  • Large island
  • Granite countertops

Tags

OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUTGRANITE COUNTERTOPSSTAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCESLARGE ISLANDPRIVATE BATHGENEROUS CLOSET SPACE

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (6.4% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (15.9% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $201k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
  • Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 921 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 12486% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $201,089 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.84%
Cap rate
5.86%
Cash-on-cash
-1.54%
DSCR
0.93
GRM
9.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$240,302
List price
$239,000
Delta
-0.54%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
5943 Snapping Turtle Rd 0.15mi 3/2.0 1,335 (0%) 4mo $225,000 $169 90
5831 Littoral Rd 0.07mi 3/2.0 1,335 (0%) 8mo $233,900 $175 90
8402 Dusty Ridge Rd 0.17mi 3/2.0 1,392 (+4%) 1mo $229,000 $165 84
5739 Rainbow Rd 0.22mi 3/2.0 1,381 (+3%) 3mo $215,000 $156 82
6022 Treasure Cove Rd 0.21mi 3/2.0 1,335 (0%) 11mo $239,900 $180 81
6011 Treasure Cove Rd 0.19mi 3/2.0 1,392 (+4%) 13mo $257,000 $185 74
5523 Rainbow Rd 0.41mi 3/2.0 1,392 (+4%) 11mo $243,900 $175 65
5838 Golden Cove Rd 0.33mi 3/2.5 1,404 (+5%) 12mo $220,000 $157 64
5834 Golden Cove Rd 0.33mi 3/2.0 1,166 (-13%) 4mo $215,000 $184 60
14503 Sweet Water Dr 0.44mi 3/2.0 1,516 (+14%) 4mo $280,000 $185 53
14531 Sweetwater Dr 0.52mi 3/2.0 1,516 (+14%) 1mo $269,999 $178 52
6138 Hidden Cove Rd 0.39mi 3/2.0 1,166 (-13%) 13mo $220,000 $189 49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-18.3%
Equity multiple
0.35×
Total profit
$-43,305
Equity at exit
$35,636
10-year hold
IRR
-9.8%
Equity multiple
0.39×
Total profit
$-41,045
Equity at exit
$20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
18 active · 9 under contract
Months of supply
7.7 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$270,945 ($184/sqft)
Median days on market
108 d
This list price
17% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-2.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

Home prices YoY
-31.5%
Rents YoY
3.4%
Active inventory
921
Price-to-rent
9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,011 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,253
Tax from tax record
$304 /mo · $3,643/yr
Insurance
$100
HOA
$18
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$422
Net cashflow
$-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,120
Max offer price $223,817
Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $49 -5% $-18 +0% $-86 +5% $-154 +10% $-221
Rent -10% $-245 -5% $-165 +0% $-86 +5% $-7 +10% $73
Rate -1.0pp $34 -0.5pp $-25 base $-86 +0.5pp $-148 +1.0pp $-211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$59,750
Closing costs
$7,170
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 20 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1305 $1,886 $1.45 23d 1 0.12mi
5927 Golden Cove Rd Cove, TX 3.0 2.0 1166 $1,700 $1.46 8d 1 0.27mi
8015 Distant Harbor Rd Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1414 $1,801 $1.27 7d 1 0.33mi
5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1553 $2,081 $1.34 73d 1 0.67mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 1821 $2,395 $1.32 50d 1 0.77mi
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 1666 $2,191 $1.32 71d 1 0.83mi
4810 Bay Vista Dr Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 1843 $2,166 $1.18 21d 1 0.86mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 1857 $2,211 $1.19 7d 1 0.86mi
8017 FM 3180 Rd Baytown, TX 2.0 2.0 1081 $1,450 $1.34 93d 1 0.89mi
8423 Montego Bay Dr Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1679 $1,936 $1.15 28d 1 0.89mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX 3.0 3.0 952 $1,195 $1.26 39d 1 0.95mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX 3.0 2.0 952 $1,195 $1.26 67d 1 0.95mi
8330 Hampton Bay Dr Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1364 $1,946 $1.43 12d 1 0.96mi
1 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX 2.0 2.0 1056 $1,095 $1.04 2d 1 1.01mi
74 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX 3.0 2.0 1064 $1,195 $1.12 28d 1 1.01mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX 3.0 2.0 1216 $1,195 $0.98 64d 1 1.01mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX 3.0 2.0 1216 $1,195 $0.98 52d 1 1.01mi
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 1829 $2,750 $1.50 93d 1 1.01mi
15114 Diamond Way Baytown, TX 3.0 2.0 1503 $1,671 $1.11 27d 1 1.04mi
15218 Arnold Baytown, TX 4.0 2.0 1751 $2,300 $1.31 0d 1 1.17mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info
Lease considered
HOA & community
Joseph's Cove HOA with $220 annual fee

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyOne-story entry (single level)Built in 2021
Construction
Composition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features
Lot with other/unspecified features

Interior

Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features
3 total rooms

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $239,000 Active 87 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $239,000 Active 85 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $239,000 Active 84 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $239,000 Active 83 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 82 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 79 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $239,000 Active 77 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $239,000 Active 76 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    days on market $239,000 Active 74 DOM
  10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $239,000 Active 72 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $239,000 Active 71 DOM
  12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $239,000 Active 70 DOM
  13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $239,000 Active 69 DOM
  14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $239,000 Active 68 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,000 Active 66 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,000 Active 65 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $239,000 Active 64 DOM
  18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $239,000 Active 63 DOM
  19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $239,000 Active 62 DOM
  20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,000 Active 61 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,000 Active 60 DOM
  22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $239,000 Active 59 DOM
  23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $239,000 Active 58 DOM
  24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $239,000 Active 57 DOM
  25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 55 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,000 Active 54 DOM
  27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,000 Active 53 DOM
  28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $239,000 Active 52 DOM
  29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 51 DOM
  30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 50 DOM
  31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 49 DOM
  32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $239,000 Active 48 DOM
  33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $239,000 Active 47 DOM
  34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,000 Active 46 DOM
  35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $239,000 Active 45 DOM
  36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $239,000 Active 44 DOM
  37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $239,000 Active 42 DOM
  38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $239,000 Active 40 DOM
  39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $239,000 Active 39 DOM
  40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $239,000 Active 36 DOM
  41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $239,000 Active 35 DOM
  42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $239,000 Active 34 DOM
  43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $239,000 Active 33 DOM
  44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,000 Active 31 DOM
  45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $239,000 Active 27 DOM
  46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,000 Active 26 DOM
  47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 25 DOM
  48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,000 Active 22 DOM
  49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 21 DOM
  50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 20 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$3,643 · $304/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$4,374 · $364/mo
Expected delta
+$730/yr (+$61/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$24,131
− Mortgage interest
−$13,388
− Property taxes
−$3,643
− Insurance
−$1,195
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,930
− Management
−$1,930
− HOA
−$216
− Depreciation
−$6,953
Taxable loss
−$5,125
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,230
After-tax cash flow
$199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home features an open-concept layout with neutral modern finishes and abundant natural light. It is move-in ready with minor updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase the home's value.
  • Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can improve convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters.
  • Both Add outdoor lighting — Well-lit outdoor areas can enhance safety and curb appeal, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Barbers Hill El South B+ TX #246/4,322 Nat'l #5,107/41,679 Middle Barbers Hill Middle South A TX #58/1,662 Nat'l #819/14,009 High Barbers Hill H S B+ TX #95/1,632 Nat'l #1,878/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Barbers Hill ISD
NCES district ID
4809450
Math proficiency
72% ▼ -5.00%
Reading proficiency
65% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income
$87,257
Composite
61.73/100
National rank
#737
State rank
#12 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

Score
69/100
State rank
#412
US rank
#8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Chambers County · 46,946 people
City population
135,579
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
30,186
Household income
$124,188
Rent vs Own
18.7% rent · 81.3% own
Severe rent burden
6% of renters

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
46,946 people
By 2030
51,094 · +8.8%
By 2040
59,578 · +26.9%
By 2050
68,318 · +45.5%
By 2075
90,485 · +92.7%
By 2100
104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Majority White (62%)
Race & ethnicity
White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 22%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born
9% · Canada
Languages at home
82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

2024 margin
Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
2008→2024 swing
-14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
All cycles
2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-99.2% since first listed
7 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-14 Listed for Rent $1,899 HARMLS
  • 2026-05-13 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
  • 2024-04-27 Rental Removed $1,899 HARMLS
  • 2024-04-26 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2024-03-08 Listed for Rent $1,899 HARMLS
  • 2024-03-04 Sold (Public Records) Public Records
  • 2024-03-01 Listed $249,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+59.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,643 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…