8410 Bermuda Blue Rd · Baytown, TX
Flood risk 3/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.2%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 111°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 25 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +11.3/30.0
- ARV discount +7.7/15.0
- Schools +6.9/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- 1% rule +3.4/10.0
- Rent growth +3.4/5.0
- DSCR +3.3/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$239,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Beautiful home featuring an open-concept layout designed for both comfort and functionality! This well-maintained home offers spacious living areas, neutral modern finishes, and abundant natural light throughout. The kitchen features granite countertops, dark cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a large island overlooking the living and dining areas — perfect for entertaining. The primary suite offers a private bath and generous closet space, while the secondary bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy the fully fenced backyard with plenty of room for outdoor activities.
Key facts
- Private bath
- Large island
- Granite countertops
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (6.4% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (15.9% below list).
- Recommended offer: $201k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
- Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 921 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 12486% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.84% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.86%
- Cash-on-cash
- -1.54%
- DSCR
- 0.93
- GRM
- 9.9
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $240,302
- List price
- $239,000
- Delta
- -0.54%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5943 Snapping Turtle Rd | 0.15mi | 3/2.0 | 1,335 (0%) | 4mo | $225,000 | $169 | 90 |
| 5831 Littoral Rd | 0.07mi | 3/2.0 | 1,335 (0%) | 8mo | $233,900 | $175 | 90 |
| 8402 Dusty Ridge Rd | 0.17mi | 3/2.0 | 1,392 (+4%) | 1mo | $229,000 | $165 | 84 |
| 5739 Rainbow Rd | 0.22mi | 3/2.0 | 1,381 (+3%) | 3mo | $215,000 | $156 | 82 |
| 6022 Treasure Cove Rd | 0.21mi | 3/2.0 | 1,335 (0%) | 11mo | $239,900 | $180 | 81 |
| 6011 Treasure Cove Rd | 0.19mi | 3/2.0 | 1,392 (+4%) | 13mo | $257,000 | $185 | 74 |
| 5523 Rainbow Rd | 0.41mi | 3/2.0 | 1,392 (+4%) | 11mo | $243,900 | $175 | 65 |
| 5838 Golden Cove Rd | 0.33mi | 3/2.5 | 1,404 (+5%) | 12mo | $220,000 | $157 | 64 |
| 5834 Golden Cove Rd | 0.33mi | 3/2.0 | 1,166 (-13%) | 4mo | $215,000 | $184 | 60 |
| 14503 Sweet Water Dr | 0.44mi | 3/2.0 | 1,516 (+14%) | 4mo | $280,000 | $185 | 53 |
| 14531 Sweetwater Dr | 0.52mi | 3/2.0 | 1,516 (+14%) | 1mo | $269,999 | $178 | 52 |
| 6138 Hidden Cove Rd | 0.39mi | 3/2.0 | 1,166 (-13%) | 13mo | $220,000 | $189 | 49 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -18.3%
- Equity multiple
- 0.35×
- Total profit
- $-43,305
- Equity at exit
- $35,636
- IRR
- -9.8%
- Equity multiple
- 0.39×
- Total profit
- $-41,045
- Equity at exit
- $20,664
Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 18 active · 9 under contract
- Months of supply
- 7.7 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $270,945 ($184/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 108 d
- This list price
- 17% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -2.3% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 77523
- Home prices YoY
- -31.5%
- Rents YoY
- 3.4%
- Active inventory
- 921
- Price-to-rent
- 9.9×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,011 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,253
- Tax from tax record
- −$304 /mo · $3,643/yr
- Insurance
- −$100
- HOA
- −$18
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$422
- Net cashflow
- $-86
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $49 | -5% $-18 | +0% $-86 | +5% $-154 | +10% $-221 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-245 | -5% $-165 | +0% $-86 | +5% $-7 | +10% $73 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $34 | -0.5pp $-25 | base $-86 | +0.5pp $-148 | +1.0pp $-211 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $59,750
- Closing costs
- $7,170
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 20 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1305 | $1,886 | $1.45 | 23d | 1 | 0.12mi |
| 5927 Golden Cove Rd Cove, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1166 | $1,700 | $1.46 | 8d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 8015 Distant Harbor Rd Baytown, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1414 | $1,801 | $1.27 | 7d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1553 | $2,081 | $1.34 | 73d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1821 | $2,395 | $1.32 | 50d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1666 | $2,191 | $1.32 | 71d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 4810 Bay Vista Dr Baytown, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1843 | $2,166 | $1.18 | 21d | 1 | 0.86mi |
| 131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1857 | $2,211 | $1.19 | 7d | 1 | 0.86mi |
| 8017 FM 3180 Rd Baytown, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1081 | $1,450 | $1.34 | 93d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 8423 Montego Bay Dr Baytown, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1679 | $1,936 | $1.15 | 28d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 952 | $1,195 | $1.26 | 39d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 952 | $1,195 | $1.26 | 67d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 8330 Hampton Bay Dr Baytown, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1364 | $1,946 | $1.43 | 12d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 1 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1056 | $1,095 | $1.04 | 2d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 74 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1064 | $1,195 | $1.12 | 28d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1216 | $1,195 | $0.98 | 64d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1216 | $1,195 | $0.98 | 52d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1829 | $2,750 | $1.50 | 93d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 15114 Diamond Way Baytown, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1503 | $1,671 | $1.11 | 27d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 15218 Arnold Baytown, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1751 | $2,300 | $1.31 | 0d | 1 | 1.17mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Financial info
- Lease considered
- HOA & community
- Joseph's Cove HOA with $220 annual fee
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 2-car garage
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewer
- Home design
- Residential propertyOne-story entry (single level)Built in 2021
- Construction
- Composition roofSlab foundation
- Exterior features
- Lot with other/unspecified features
Interior
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
- Interior features
- 3 total rooms
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $239,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $239,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $239,000 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $239,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $239,000 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $239,000 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $239,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $239,000 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $239,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $239,000 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $239,000 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $239,000 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $239,000 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $239,000 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $239,000 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $239,000 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $239,000 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $239,000 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $239,000 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $239,000 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $239,000 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $239,000 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $239,000 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $239,000 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $239,000 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $239,000 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $239,000 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $239,000 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $239,000 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $239,000 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $239,000 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $239,000 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $239,000 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $239,000 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $239,000 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $239,000 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $239,000 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $239,000 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $239,000 Active 39 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $239,000 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $239,000 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $239,000 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $239,000 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $239,000 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $239,000 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $239,000 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $239,000 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $239,000 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $239,000 Active 21 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $239,000 Active 20 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $3,643 · $304/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $4,374 · $364/mo
- Expected delta
- +$730/yr (+$61/mo · 20.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $24,131
- − Mortgage interest
- −$13,388
- − Property taxes
- −$3,643
- − Insurance
- −$1,195
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,930
- − Management
- −$1,930
- − HOA
- −$216
- − Depreciation
- −$6,953
- Taxable loss
- −$5,125
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,230
- After-tax cash flow
- $199/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This well-maintained single-family home features an open-concept layout with neutral modern finishes and abundant natural light. It is move-in ready with minor updates that can significantly increase its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase the home's value. ↑
- Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can improve convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
- Both Add outdoor lighting — Well-lit outdoor areas can enhance safety and curb appeal, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Barbers Hill ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4809450
- Math proficiency
- 72% ▼ -5.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 65% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $87,257
- Composite
- 61.73/100
- National rank
- #737
- State rank
- #12 of 826 in TX
Livability — Baytown
- Score
- 69/100
- State rank
- #412
- US rank
- #8494
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Chambers County · 46,946 people
- City population
- 135,579
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 30,186
- Household income
- $124,188
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 6% of renters
Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 46,946 people
- By 2030
- 51,094 · +8.8%
- By 2040
- 59,578 · +26.9%
- By 2050
- 68,318 · +45.5%
- By 2075
- 90,485 · +92.7%
- By 2100
- 104,885 · +123.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Majority White (62%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 22%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 82% English-only · Spanish 17%
Political lean MEDSL · Chambers
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -102.33%
- Current HPI
- 222.6999
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 3.42%
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
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Price history
-99.2% since first listed7 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-14 Listed for Rent $1,899 HARMLS
- 2026-05-13 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
- 2024-04-27 Rental Removed $1,899 HARMLS
- 2024-04-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2024-03-08 Listed for Rent $1,899 HARMLS
- 2024-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
- 2024-03-01 Listed $249,000 HARMLS
Property tax history
+59.1%/yrLatest (2025): $3,643 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…