2802 Elmhurst Ave · Celoron, NY 14701

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,006 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1900 5,060 sqft lot $139/sqft · 46% below area Est $261k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom home offering comfortable living space and desirable lake access. This well-maintained property features low-maintenance vinyl siding and a thoughtfully updated interior, including a modern kitchen and refreshed bathroom. Central air conditioning adds year-round comfort. The efficient layout maximizes space while providing a warm and inviting atmosphere, perfect for year-round living or a relaxing getaway.

Key facts

• Refreshed bathroom
• Vinyl siding
• Lake access

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• VINYL SIDING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• REFRESHED BATHROOM
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#320 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $140k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.79%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,991
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -46.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3514 Lake St	0.09mi	2/1.5	1,020 (+1%)	11mo	$233,000	$228	83
3785 Gokey Rd	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+9%)	12mo	$449,500	$409	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-16,846
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,024
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14701

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,575/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,275

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2887 Fluvanna Townline Rd Jamestown, NY	1.0	1.0	820	$1,750	$2.13	44d	1	0.30mi
3779 Heineman Rd Bemus Point, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	44d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom home offering comfortable living space and desirable lake access. This well-maintained property features low-maintenance vinyl siding and a thoughtfully updated interior, including a modern kitchen and refreshed bathroom. Central air conditioning adds year-round comfort. The efficient layout maximizes space while providing a warm and inviting atmosphere, perfect for year-round living or a relaxing getaway.

2. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom home offering comfortable living space and desirable lake access. This well-maintained property features low-maintenance vinyl siding and a thoughtfully updated interior, including a modern kitchen and refreshed bathroom. Central air conditioning adds year-round comfort. The efficient layout maximizes space while providing a warm and inviting atmosphere, perfect for year-round living or a relaxing getaway.

3. 2026-03-31
   listed $140,000 Active 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom home offering comfortable living space and desirable lake access. This well-maintained property features low-maintenance vinyl siding and a thoughtfully updated interior, including a modern kitchen and refreshed bathroom. Central air conditioning adds year-round comfort. The efficient layout maximizes space while providing a warm and inviting atmosphere, perfect for year-round living or a relaxing getaway.

4. 1996-06-28
   soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,575 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,575 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,575
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,334
• − Management: −$1,334
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$283
• After-tax cash flow: $1,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Celoron

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #320
• US rank: #5307

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chautauqua County · 38,461 people
• City population: 38,461
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,461
• Household income: $49,685
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1838.0

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.93%
• Current HPI: 259.402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+278.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $140,000 UNYREIS
• 1996-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,575 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.