526 Emerald Thicket Ln · Houston, TX 77336

$234,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,341 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2025 4,200 sqft lot $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE-IN READY!! It’s in the award-winning community of Woodland Lakes - On Lake Houston with lake access! Colina Homes believes in building your dream home. This amazing Single-Story home feels much larger than it's 1267 sqft. Open concept floor plan. It has 3 bedrooms 2 Full Baths + Covered Patio included, and it will surely make you feel right at home! The beautiful Kitchen features 42” Cabinets + Luxury Granite + Decorative Tile Back splash + Stainless "Farmhouse Style" Single-Bowl Sink +Stainless Frigidaire Dishwasher, Vented Microwave & 5-BURNER GAS RANGE! Gorgeous Ceramic Plank Floors throughout all of the common areas (Entry, Kitchen, Dining, Family Room,

Key facts

• Spacious primary
• Luxury granite
• Covered patio

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• LUXURY GRANITE
• DECORATIVE TILE BACK SPLASH
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY

🏗️ New construction. The $234,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $215,901.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($287/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,069 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,901
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
526 Emerald Thicket Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-6%)	1mo	$234,990	$185	90
24709 Stablewood Forest Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-6%)	2mo	$227,990	$180	84
24717 Stablewood Frst	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-6%)	3mo	$224,990	$178	83
723 Pas Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+2%)	4mo	$220,000	$161	74
24718 Windward Birch Way Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,427 (+6%)	5mo	$224,990	$158	71
304 Emerald Thicket Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,427 (+6%)	5mo	$224,990	$158	71
24318 Hard Wood Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-5%)	2mo	$190,000	$149	64
218 Emerald Thicket Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,490 (+11%)	6mo	$240,990	$162	59
24307 Silver Maple Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,235 (-8%)	4mo	$200,000	$162	56
331 Cherry Valley Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,495 (+12%)	2mo	$185,000	$124	56
24311 Silver Maple Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,235 (-8%)	5mo	$179,900	$146	56
507 Corydon Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,310 (-2%)	2mo	$80,000	$61	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-33,336
• Equity at exit: $32,192

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-26,559
• Equity at exit: $18,667

Cash invested: $60,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,111 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,132
• Tax from tax record: −$388 /mo · $4,660/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,080

Max offer price $215,901

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,975
• Closing costs: $6,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
408 Emerald Thicket Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,200	$1.25	43d	1	0.16mi
24523 Whitesail Dr Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,800	$1.19	43d	1	0.33mi
24719 Colony Meadow Trl Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$2,200	$1.36	43d	1	0.46mi
24730 Russet Bluff Trl Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1604	$2,150	$1.34	1d	1	0.55mi
24118 Grey Fox Dr Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1543	$1,425	$0.92	43d	1	0.77mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-27
   listed $234,990 Active
3. 2026-01-27
   historical
4. 2026-01-05
   price $234,990
5. 2025-12-17
   listed $219,990 Active
6. 2025-12-17
   historical
7. 2025-11-15
   price $219,990
8. 2025-11-04
   listed $224,990 Active
9. 2025-11-04
   historical
10. 2025-10-24
    price $224,990
11. 2025-09-19
    price $228,990
12. 2025-09-12
    price $247,990
13. 2025-09-09
    listed $250,670 Active
14. 2025-09-08
    historical
15. 2025-08-20
    listed $247,990 Active
16. 2025-08-18
    historical
17. 2025-06-19
    listed $247,990 Active
18. 2025-06-18
    historical
19. 2025-04-15
    listed $247,990 Active
20. 2025-04-14
    historical
21. 2025-03-24
    price $247,990
22. 2025-02-26
    listed $232,990 Active
23. 2025-02-24
    historical
24. 2025-01-24
    price $232,990
25. 2025-01-14
    listed $229,990 Active
26. 2025-01-13
    historical
27. 2024-12-18
    price $229,990
28. 2024-12-01
    price $241,490
29. 2024-11-20
    listed $239,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,660 · $388/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,660 · $388/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,094
• − Property taxes: −$4,660
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,026
• − Management: −$2,026
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,281
• Taxable loss: −$3,235
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$776
• After-tax cash flow: $1,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $224,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $224,990 HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $228,990 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $247,990 HARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $250,670 HARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Listed $247,990 HARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $247,990 HARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-15 Listed $247,990 HARMLS
• 2025-04-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $247,990 HARMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listed $232,990 HARMLS
• 2025-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $232,990 HARMLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2025-01-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-18 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2024-12-01 Price Changed $241,490 HARMLS
• 2024-11-20 Listed $239,490 HARMLS

Property tax history

+111.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,660 · +394.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.