2225 E Miner Ave · Stockton, CA 95205

$199,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 887 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1951 5,001 sqft lot Est $291k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lots of potential here to fix up and continue use as a residence, or re-purpose as allowed by the light industrial zoning. Central heat and air, good sized laundry room, detached garage/additional space that could be re-built and set up for many different uses.

Key facts

• Central heat and air
• Detached garage
• 5,001 sq ft lot

Tags

• LIGHT INDUSTRIAL ZONING
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• GOOD SIZED LAUNDRY ROOM
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not a senior community
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage facing front; Unpaved driveway
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Electric service (other); Public sewer; Public water; Irrigation from public district
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Built in 1951; Fixer condition
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas oven; Laminate counters; Space for dining in the kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower combination and window
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Free standing gas oven; Laminate counters; Inside laundry room; One-level single-story layout; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside; Meter on-site for water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: King Elementary (987 students, 84% FRL); Stockton High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 135 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 76% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,290 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.92%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,936
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2330 E Finland Ave	0.15mi	2/1.0	842 (-5%)	1mo	$299,000	$355	84
630 N Watts Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0	932 (+5%)	2mo	$276,288	$296	77
546 N Watts Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0	835 (-6%)	6mo	$215,000	$257	75
2125 E Myrtle St	0.23mi	2/1.0	981 (+11%)	4mo	$205,000	$209	68
1816 E Sonora St	0.64mi	2/1.0	884 (-0%)	6mo	$290,000	$328	64
2362 Alma St	0.57mi	2/1.0	816 (-8%)	4mo	$160,000	$196	57
2247 Alma St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+8%)	4mo	$300,000	$313	53
520 N Golden Gate Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0	954 (+8%)	4mo	$362,000	$379	52
312 Florence St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	769 (-13%)	5mo	$345,000	$449	49
1000 Beatrice Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0	1,020 (+15%)	0mo	$233,000	$228	43
511 Burkett Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0	772 (-13%)	3mo	$365,000	$473	41
2415 E Taylor St	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	783 (-12%)	2mo	$365,000	$466	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-23,777
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,953
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95205

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,673 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $679/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,501

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $192	+0% $136	+5% $79	+10% $23
Rent	-10% $4	-5% $70	+0% $136	+5% $202	+10% $268
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $186	base $136	+0.5pp $84	+1.0pp $31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
837 N Pilgrim St Unit 3 Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	588	$1,150	$1.96	25d	1	0.96mi
1526 N Sierra Nevada St Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,600	$2.54	25d	1	1.10mi
610 E Oak St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	930	$1,550	$1.67	25d	1	1.29mi
731 N Sutter St Unit 731 Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	612	$1,135	$1.85	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $199,500 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,500 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,500 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,500 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,500 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,500 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,500 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   remarks 261-char remark
9. 2026-06-05
   listed $199,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $679 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,516 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$838/yr (+$70/mo · 123.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$679
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,606
• − Management: −$1,606
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$1,792
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$430
• After-tax cash flow: $2,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 39,608
• Household income: $60,325
• Rent vs Own: 50.4% rent · 49.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 21% White 9% Asian 6% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 58% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.45%
• Current HPI: 502.8934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $679 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.