727 N Ave B · Kermit, TX 79745

$147,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1963 7,840 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This home is priced to sell and is in a nice location. The perfect sized home for a family with a nice back yard and a shop, along with a separate storage room that would also serve as a neat play house for the kids. A covered, screened in patio also gets lots of afternoon shade for evenings outside. New central air conditioner and sewer line. Take a look at this one.

Key facts

• Storage room
• Shop
• Back yard

Tags

• BACK YARD
• SHOP
• STORAGE ROOM
• PLAY HOUSE
• COVERED SCREENED PATIO
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces total; Two covered spaces; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Frame and other construction materials; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.18-acre lot (62 x 125)
• Exterior features: Landscaped lot; Paved road access; Solar energy system; Storage structure; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds; Gas water heater; Electric cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#925 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kermit ISD (town): math 31% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #602 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kermit El (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 596 students, 77% FRL); Kermit J H (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 406 students, 74% FRL); Kermit H S (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 372 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 36% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Winkler County population projected at +67% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.90%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $108,606
• Equity at exit: $132,880

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.21×
• Total profit: $297,598
• Equity at exit: $286,560

Cash invested: $41,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79745

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,718/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,238

Max offer price $147,500

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,875
• Closing costs: $4,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
452 North Avenue B Unit B Kermit, TX	3.0	1.5	1220	$1,800	$1.48	43d	1	0.31mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $147,500 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $147,500 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $147,500 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-05-21
   listed $147,500 Active
5. 2016-09-29
   soldstatus
6. 2014-12-22
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,718 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,699 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$982/yr (+$82/mo · 57.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,262
• − Property taxes: −$1,718
• − Insurance: −$738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,291
• Taxable income: $3,136
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$753
• After-tax cash flow: $4,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kermit ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825560
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,332
• Composite: 26.47/100
• National rank: #7215
• State rank: #602 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kermit

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #925
• US rank: #16453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kermit, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,160

Population outlook (Winkler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,019 people
• By 2030: 11,177 · +11.6%
• By 2040: 13,746 · +37.2%
• By 2050: 16,734 · +67.0%
• By 2075: 24,573 · +145.3%
• By 2100: 30,264 · +202.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Winkler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.5) · D 14.7% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -51.8pp · 2024: -70.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.5 2020: R+65.6 2016: R+52.5 2012: R+53.5 2008: R+51.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.52%
• Current HPI: 233.1436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $147,500 ODMLS
• 2016-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,718 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.