639 Trails End Dr · Camp Nelson, CA 93265

$236,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 1311 Days on market

0.26 ac lot Est $239k · at est. ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a mountain cabin that has the privacy and mountain feel of a secluded retreat but with the comfort of home? This lovely cabin, tucked up against the forest, is waiting for you! It features a huge living room with a fireplace and a slider to the covered front porch, a large updated kitchen with recent appliances and a coffee bar, three bedrooms, two baths, and recent paint and wainscotting throughout the cabin. Add in a nice mudroom and an entire forest out the back with boulders and access to an attic bonus room and you have a cabin you don't want to miss out on – call today to see it before it's gone!

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Listed 1311 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Guest parking
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled; One story; No shared/common walls
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Built as a single-story home
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Rear porch; Front porch; Rectangular lot; Paved road; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Propane cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Electric heating; Propane heating; Wall furnace; Wood heating; Fireplace(s); No central cooling
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Recessed lighting; Tile countertops; Built-in bookcases; High-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup; Dryer; Washer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $236k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 25/100 on livability (#1,489 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Springville Union Elementary (rural): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #476 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1311 days — a 12% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $88k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,942 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1311 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,250
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
491 Clover Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+9%)	16mo	$200,000	$127	64
654 Trails End Dr	0.03mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (-10%)	18mo	$215,000	$165	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $113,599
• Equity at exit: $213,058

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $346,678
• Equity at exit: $459,467

Cash invested: $66,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93265

• Home prices YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,240
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$296 /mo · $3,548/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,153

Max offer price $201,798

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,125
• Closing costs: $7,095
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $236,500 Active 1311 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $236,500 Active 1310 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $236,500 Active 1309 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $236,500 Active 1308 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $236,500 Active 1306 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $236,500 Active 1305 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $236,500 Active 1303 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $236,500 Active 1302 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $236,500 Active 1301 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $236,500 Active 1300 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $236,500 Active 1297 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $236,500 Active 1296 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $236,500 Active 1295 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $236,500 Active 1294 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $236,500 Active 1293 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $236,500 Active 1292 DOM
17. 2025-10-21
    price $236,500
18. 2025-07-11
    price $249,000
19. 2025-03-28
    price $259,000
20. 2024-10-21
    price $269,000
21. 2024-04-18
    price $289,000
22. 2023-12-08
    price $299,000
23. 2023-09-01
    status Active
24. 2023-08-07
    historical
25. 2023-07-19
    price $309,000
26. 2022-11-12
    price $315,000
27. 2022-10-21
    listed $325,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 13 d/yr ≥82°F today · 33 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 51 unhealthy d/yr today · 54 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,248
• − Property taxes: −$3,548
• − Insurance: −$1,980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − Depreciation: −$6,880
• Taxable loss: −$7,013
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,683
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,881
• Composite: 43.58/100
• National rank: #6431
• State rank: #476 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Camp Nelson

• Score: 25/100
• State rank: #1489
• US rank: #27998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Camp Nelson, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,532

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.24%
• Current HPI: 361.9818
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-27.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $236,500 TCMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $249,000 TCMLS
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $259,000 TCMLS
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $269,000 TCMLS
• 2024-04-18 Price Changed $289,000 TCMLS
• 2023-12-08 Price Changed $299,000 TCMLS
• 2023-09-01 Relisted — TCMLS
• 2023-08-07 Delisted — TCMLS
• 2023-07-19 Price Changed $309,000 TCMLS
• 2022-11-12 Price Changed $315,000 TCMLS
• 2022-10-21 Listed $325,000 TCMLS