335 American Black Bear Dr · Barrett, TX 77532

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,597 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 219 Days on market

Built 2017 5,501 sqft lot $143/sqft · 18% below area Est $280k · 18% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TENANT OCCUPIED - No tours unless in contract.

Key facts

• 5,501 sq ft lot
• Built 2017
• Listed 218 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 5.8% in Barrett — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12016% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,517 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.20%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,084
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -18.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 Asiatic Black Bear Way Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,645 (+3%)	17mo	$259,900	$158	74
13615 Alaskan Brown Bear Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-13%)	15mo	$245,000	$176	55
307 Century Farm Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-13%)	20mo	$229,990	$166	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-60,889
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-90,883
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1188
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$547 /mo · $6,568/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,334

Max offer price $170,517

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-201	-5% $-266	+0% $-331	+5% $-396	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-482	-5% $-407	+0% $-331	+5% $-255	+10% $-180
Rate	-1.0pp $-216	-0.5pp $-273	base $-331	+0.5pp $-390	+1.0pp $-451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,000 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 205 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 199 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 198 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    status Active 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    TENANT OCCUPIED - No tours unless in contract.

16. 2025-11-07
    historical 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    TENANT OCCUPIED - No tours unless in contract.

17. 2025-11-07
    price $229,000 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    TENANT OCCUPIED - No tours unless in contract.

18. 2025-08-27
    status Active 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    TENANT OCCUPIED - No tours unless in contract.

19. 2025-08-25
    status Pending 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    TENANT OCCUPIED - No tours unless in contract.

20. 2025-08-20
    historical $1,490
21. 2025-08-19
    price $199,000 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    TENANT OCCUPIED - No tours unless in contract.

22. 2025-08-14
    price $1,490
23. 2025-07-08
    listed $1,890
24. 2025-06-30
    listed $239,000 Active 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    TENANT OCCUPIED - No tours unless in contract.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,568 · $547/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,568 · $547/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$6,568
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,838
• − Management: −$1,838
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$7,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,897
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Rental Removed $1,490 HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $1,490 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,890 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listed $239,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+29.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,568 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.