4614 Phlox St · Houston, TX 77051

$235,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2005 5,000 sqft lot $141/sqft · at area comps Est $236k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 story 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath 2005 build rental property has been well maintained. The roof was replaced with 30 year shingles in 2023. The electrical panel box was replaced in 2025. The interior was renovated in 2024 with lvp flooring throughout. There is no carpet in the rental making it ideal for limited floor maintenance. The refrigerator, stove, washer and microwave were replaced with new appliances in 2024. The street is being updated with brand new construction in either direction. Long-term tenant in place since 2024.

Key facts

• New construction
• Interior renovated
• New appliances

Tags

• ROOF REPLACED
• ELECTRICAL PANEL BOX REPLACED
• INTERIOR RENOVATED
• NEW APPLIANCES
• LIMITED FLOOR MAINTENANCE
• NEW CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($430/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,178/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,763 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,178
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -0.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4726 Angleton St	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,652 (-1%)	8mo	$220,000	$133	68
4357 Maggie St	0.35mi	4/3.0	1,781 (+6%)	3mo	$239,950	$135	68
4358 Larkspur St	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,501 (-10%)	2mo	$242,500	$162	67
8815 Edgar St	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,620 (-3%)	5mo	$299,990	$185	67
4626 Maggie St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-7%)	7mo	$250,000	$160	66
8817 Edgar St	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,620 (-3%)	6mo	$299,990	$185	66
8819 Edgar St	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,620 (-3%)	7mo	$299,990	$185	66
8746 Delilah St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (+0%)	6mo	$235,000	$140	65
4747 Clover St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,851 (+11%)	1mo	$247,500	$134	61
4402 Phlox St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-14%)	5mo	$239,999	$167	54
9413 Arden Ct	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	1mo	$214,900	$149	49
5003 Higgins St Unit A	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,892 (+13%)	8mo	$222,000	$117	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $134,286
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.12×
• Total profit: $402,401
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,178 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,250/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,132

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $102	+0% $36	+5% $-31	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-50	+0% $36	+5% $122	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $96	base $36	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	45d	1	0.11mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	6d	1	0.25mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	16d	1	0.42mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	45d	1	0.43mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	25d	1	0.48mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	0.54mi
8606 Lee Otis St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1869	$1,975	$1.06	0d	1	0.62mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	14d	1	0.63mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	45d	1	0.67mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	25d	1	0.69mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	18d	1	0.70mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	45d	1	0.74mi
4835 Sunflower St Unit 1546466P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$4,516	$2.40	16d	1	0.80mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	45d	1	0.86mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	25d	1	0.89mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	15d	1	0.92mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,253	$3.84	0d	1	0.93mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	45d	1	0.95mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	12d	1	0.96mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	14d	1	0.96mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	45d	1	0.98mi
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	1.11mi
5408 Groveton St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1472	$1,983	$1.35	0d	1	1.14mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	21d	1	1.15mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	1.19mi
3620 Du Bois St Unit 1302349P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,945	$1.64	4d	1	1.19mi
7710 Darnay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,095	$1.28	45d	1	1.20mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	45d	1	1.21mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	16d	1	1.24mi
5314 Longmeadow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1646	$1,900	$1.15	45d	1	1.39mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	45d	1	1.40mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	45d	1	1.41mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,228	$1.01	0d	3	1.46mi
7358 Guadalcanal Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-03-30
    listed $235,000 Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    This 2 story 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath 2005 build rental property has been well maintained. The roof was replaced with 30 year shingles in 2023. The electrical panel box was replaced in 2025. The interior was renovated in 2024 with lvp flooring throughout. There is no carpet in the rental making it ideal for limited floor maintenance. The refrigerator, stove, washer and microwave were replaced with new appliances in 2024. The street is being updated with brand new construction in either direction. Long-term tenant in place since 2024.

14. 2025-02-24
    historical
15. 2024-11-20
    listed $260,000 Active
16. 2024-06-24
    historical $2,199
17. 2024-06-22
    historical
18. 2024-06-12
    listed $2,199
19. 2024-06-11
    price $254,999
20. 2024-05-25
    listed $274,999 Active
21. 2024-05-23
    historical
22. 2024-04-18
    historical $2,299
23. 2024-04-17
    historical
24. 2024-04-02
    price $2,299
25. 2024-04-01
    price $263,999
26. 2024-03-16
    listed $2,499
27. 2024-03-06
    listed $274,990 Active
28. 2024-02-27
    historical
29. 2020-06-24
    soldstatus
30. 2020-06-19
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2020-05-17
    status Pending
32. 2020-05-09
    status Option Pending
33. 2020-02-23
    listed $179,000 Active
34. 2019-05-01
    historical
35. 2019-04-18
    listed $175,000 Active
36. 2019-04-08
    historical
37. 2018-11-08
    listed $175,000 Active
38. 2017-09-22
    soldstatus Sold
39. 2017-09-22
    soldstatus
40. 2017-09-05
    status Pending
41. 2017-08-07
    status Pending, Continue to Show
42. 2017-07-31
    listed $152,900 Active
43. 2017-07-31
    historical
44. 2017-07-18
    listed $156,900 Active
45. 2017-07-18
    listed $154,900 Active
46. 2017-07-17
    historical
47. 2006-01-17
    soldstatus
48. 2004-06-01
    soldstatus
49. 1988-03-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,250 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$50/yr (+$4/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$4,250
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,091
• − Management: −$2,091
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,475
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$834
• After-tax cash flow: $1,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+51.7% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-20 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-24 Rental Removed $2,199 HARMLS
• 2024-06-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-12 Listed for Rent $2,199 HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $254,999 HARMLS
• 2024-05-25 Listed $274,999 HARMLS
• 2024-05-23 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-04-18 Rental Removed $2,299 HARMLS
• 2024-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $2,299 HARMLS
• 2024-04-01 Price Changed $263,999 HARMLS
• 2024-03-16 Listed for Rent $2,499 HARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Listed $274,990 HARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2020-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-23 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-04-18 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2019-04-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-11-08 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2017-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-09-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-09-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-08-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-07-31 Listed $152,900 HARMLS
• 2017-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-07-18 Listed $156,900 HARMLS
• 2017-07-18 Listed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2017-07-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,250 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.