6606 Muckelroy St · Houston, TX 77076

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,842 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1956 10,802 sqft lot $130/sqft · 7% below area Est $259k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Traditional 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with an added living area off the kitchen. Easy access to I-45, close proximity to downtown and plenty of shopping. Very large backyard with a storage shed. Easy to show.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Easy access to i-45
• Storage shed

Tags

• ADDED LIVING AREA
• EASY ACCESS TO I-45
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO DOWNTOWN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-883/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,073/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 1781% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,302 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,032
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -7.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6716 Parker Oaks Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,848 (+0%)	3mo	$244,900	$133	86
6708 Parker Grove Ln	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,836 (-0%)	5mo	$255,760	$139	85
6707 Parker Oaks Ln	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,848 (+0%)	4mo	$239,000	$129	82
505 E Wellington St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,748 (-5%)	4mo	$239,900	$137	81
202 West Rocky Creek Rd	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (-4%)	8mo	$225,000	$127	67
715 E Twickenham Trl	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,847 (+0%)	6mo	$255,000	$138	66
7213 Werner St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (+0%)	7mo	$130,000	$70	63
209 W Twickenham Trl	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,952 (+6%)	8mo	$265,000	$136	63
153 E Rittenhouse St	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,666 (-10%)	8mo	$259,000	$155	56
422 Yale Oaks Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,958 (+6%)	6mo	$347,500	$177	52
718 E Twickenham Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,626 (-12%)	10mo	$195,000	$120	50
710 E Rittenhouse St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,723 (-6%)	12mo	$135,000	$78	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-43,514
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-43,668
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77076

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,232/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,166

Max offer price $227,000

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $-6	+0% $-74	+5% $-142	+10% $-209
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-155	+0% $-74	+5% $8	+10% $90
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $-13	base $-74	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 Sunnyside St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,386	$1.50	44d	16	0.16mi
6706 Parker Grove Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2129	$2,200	$1.03	44d	1	0.18mi
301 W Little York Rd Unit 1722 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,230	$0.93	21d	1	0.76mi
24 Bucan St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,999	$1.27	25d	1	0.84mi
28 Bucan St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,999	$1.27	25d	1	0.85mi
28 Bucan St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,999	$1.27	0d	1	0.85mi
28 Bucan St Unit G Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,999	$1.27	0d	1	0.85mi
5342 Donovan Gardens Ln Unit 1521013P Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1743	$2,985	$1.71	8d	1	1.18mi
774 Dillard St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1899	$2,405	$1.27	21d	1	1.23mi
426 Stonework Sage Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,650	$1.66	44d	1	1.27mi
6127 W Montgomery Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1786	$2,000	$1.12	25d	1	1.31mi
9910 Clark Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1695	$1,900	$1.12	8d	1	1.32mi
209 Clark Meadows Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1620	$2,399	$1.48	13d	1	1.32mi
411 E Carby Rd Houston, TX	4.0	1.5	1806	$1,649	$0.91	23d	1	1.33mi
855 S Victory Dr Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1546	$2,300	$1.49	44d	1	1.35mi
714 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1296	$1,094	$0.84	44d	1	1.35mi
774 Paul Quinn St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1651	$2,350	$1.42	44d	1	1.36mi
402 Del Norte St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,300	$1.28	44d	1	1.40mi
5722 # E Unit Beall St unit Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$2,011	$1.36	44d	1	1.44mi
5720 Beall St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$2,006	$1.36	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-02-03
    listed $240,000 Active 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Traditional 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with an added living area off the kitchen. Easy access to I-45, close proximity to downtown and plenty of shopping. Very large backyard with a storage shed. Easy to show.

14. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,232 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$160/yr (+$13/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$4,232
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,962
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,222
• Household income: $42,522
• Rent vs Own: 46.6% rent · 53.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1781.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 29% Black 7% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.76%
• Current HPI: 291.7578
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,232 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.