457 NE 539th St · Cross City, FL 32680

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1993 1.60 ac lot Est $199k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home, located at 457 NE 539th Street, Old Town, FL, offers a fantastic opportunity for a growing family. Situated on a spacious 1.6-acre fully fenced lot, the home boasts front and back porches, perfect for relaxing outdoors. Inside, enjoy burnt and sealed wood floors, a cozy wood-burning fireplace, and a large master suite with a garden tub. While the home could use some TLC, it has great potential. Additional features include a 2-car attached carport and a utility shed, providing ample storage and convenience.

Key facts

• Large master suite
• Fully fenced lot
• Garden tub

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• BURNT AND SEALED WOOD FLOORS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• LARGE MASTER SUITE
• GARDEN TUB

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Property in the Carol Estates subdivision
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.0% in Cross City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#412 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dixie (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #36 of 73 in FL (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Dixie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dixie County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $150k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.19%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,912
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
528 NE 389 Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+10%)	1mo	$190,000	$129	57
120 NE 438th Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	6mo	$180,000	$148	55
316 NE 576th St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	4mo	$235,500	$189	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $102,062
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.78×
• Total profit: $284,378
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32680

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,582 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $955/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,175

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 566-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $955 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$289/yr (+$24/mo · 30.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$955
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,518
• − Management: −$1,518
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $1,480
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$355
• After-tax cash flow: $3,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dixie
• NCES district ID: 1200450
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,799
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3290
• State rank: #36 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cross City

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #7340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,445

Population outlook (Dixie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,122 people
• By 2030: 14,521 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 13,503 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 12,671 · -16.2%
• By 2075: 10,857 · -28.2%
• By 2100: 8,344 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dixie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.4) · D 14.5% · R 84.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -45.0pp · 2024: -70.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.4 2020: R+66.0 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+45.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.22%
• Current HPI: 424.0037
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+120.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $149,900 DGLMLS
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $158,000 DGLMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listed $164,900 DGLMLS
• 2005-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $955 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.