1015 Church St · Columbia, MS 39429

$29,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1930 10,018 sqft lot $23/sqft · 75% below area ↓ 57% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, along with a living room, dining area, kitchen, laundry room, and back porch. The backyard provides a great space to enjoy time with family and relatives. This property offers plenty of potential to make it your own.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 118 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $855 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#154 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Columbia School District (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #45 of 130 in MS (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $204 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $885 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,845 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 124.27%
• DSCR: 6.53
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,184
• List price: $29,500
• Delta: -79.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.02×
• Total profit: $49,723
• Equity at exit: $4,399

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.75×
• Total profit: $113,546
• Equity at exit: $2,551

Cash invested: $8,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39429

• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,348 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$155
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $514/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $855

Break-even live

Break-even rent $266

Max offer price $29,500

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,375
• Closing costs: $885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   This home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, along with a living room, dining area, kitchen, laundry room, and back porch. The backyard provides a great space to enjoy time with family and relatives. This property offers plenty of potential to make it your own.

2. 2026-04-09
   price $29,500 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   This home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, along with a living room, dining area, kitchen, laundry room, and back porch. The backyard provides a great space to enjoy time with family and relatives. This property offers plenty of potential to make it your own.

3. 2026-03-12
   price $34,900 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   This home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, along with a living room, dining area, kitchen, laundry room, and back porch. The backyard provides a great space to enjoy time with family and relatives. This property offers plenty of potential to make it your own.

4. 2026-02-11
   price $39,900 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   This home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, along with a living room, dining area, kitchen, laundry room, and back porch. The backyard provides a great space to enjoy time with family and relatives. This property offers plenty of potential to make it your own.

5. 2026-01-14
   listed $49,900 Active 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   This home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, along with a living room, dining area, kitchen, laundry room, and back porch. The backyard provides a great space to enjoy time with family and relatives. This property offers plenty of potential to make it your own.

6. 2023-02-23
   soldstatus 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Looks can be deceiving!!!! A must see!!! Great price on this well kept older home near schools and park. 3 or 4 Bedrooms/2 BA, Approx. 1650 sq. ft. , original HW floors, Living Room, Dining Room, Bonus unfinished room on back, could be lg family room, Lg. Laundry Room, Single carport, front porch, storage shed and deep fenced in lot. This house is way bigger than it looks. Come take a look and fall in love with this home.

7. 2018-03-14
   listed $68,500 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Looks can be deceiving!!!! A must see!!! Great price on this well kept older home near schools and park. 3 or 4 Bedrooms/2 BA, Approx. 1650 sq. ft. , original HW floors, Living Room, Dining Room, Bonus unfinished room on back, could be lg family room, Lg. Laundry Room, Single carport, front porch, storage shed and deep fenced in lot. This house is way bigger than it looks. Come take a look and fall in love with this home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $514 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $514 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,652
• − Property taxes: −$514
• − Insurance: −$148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,294
• − Management: −$1,294
• − Depreciation: −$858
• Taxable income: $10,419
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,501
• After-tax cash flow: $7,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia School District
• NCES district ID: 2801170
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,192
• Composite: 31.87/100
• National rank: #5866
• State rank: #45 of 130 in MS

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #15293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, MS
• Population (ZIP): 16,583

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,813 people
• By 2030: 21,301 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 18,176 · -20.3%
• By 2050: 15,215 · -33.3%
• By 2075: 9,388 · -58.8%
• By 2100: 5,335 · -76.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 34% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.6) · D 28.7% · R 70.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -41.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.6 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.11%
• Current HPI: 132.3278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-56.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $29,500 MLSU
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $34,900 MLSU
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $39,900 MLSU
• 2026-01-14 Listed $49,900 MLSU
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2018-03-14 Listed $68,500 HAAR

Property tax history

+30.3%/yr

Latest (2018): $514 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.