126 Hornet St · Elgin, TX 78621

$286,255

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Land · 128 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $206/sqft · at area comps Est $300k · at est. $52/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The aptly named Maverick floor plan is a standout in both style and functionality. A charming porch entry leads to a spacious open kitchen, showcasing both a walk-in pantry and a center island that's ideal for everything from food prep to entertaining. A dining room is steps away, leading into an inviting great room. The primary bedroom is off of the great room, showcasing a walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms and another bath round out this attractive floor plan, which also includes a 2-bay garage. * Photos may not be of exact home. Prices, plans, and terms are effective on the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Square footage/dimensions shown is only an estimate and actual square footage/dimensions will differ. Buyer should rely on his or her own evaluation of usable area. Depictions of homes or other features are artist conceptions. Hardscape, landscape, and other items shown may be decorator suggestions that are not included in the purchase price and availability may vary. ©2025 Century Communities, Inc.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Dining room
• Great room

Tags

• WALK-IN PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• DINING ROOM
• GREAT ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ATTACHED BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elgin El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 847 students, 84% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $198,109 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,945
• List price: $286,255
• Delta: -4.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $138,747
• Equity at exit: $257,881

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $422,596
• Equity at exit: $556,131

Cash invested: $80,151 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,501
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,978/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,326

Max offer price $238,165

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-110	-5% $-191	+0% $-272	+5% $-353	+10% $-434
Rent	-10% $-429	-5% $-350	+0% $-272	+5% $-194	+10% $-116
Rate	-1.0pp $-128	-0.5pp $-199	base $-272	+0.5pp $-346	+1.0pp $-422

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,564
• Closing costs: $8,588
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Bendecido Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	19d	1	0.34mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	6d	1	0.74mi
212 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,895	$1.13	0d	1	0.76mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	0.86mi
110 S Main St #104 Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,700	$1.60	45d	1	1.00mi
204 Hall St Unit A Elgin, TX	2.0	1.0	910	$1,195	$1.31	0d	1	1.23mi
200 Maple Ln Elgin, TX	2.0	2.0	891	$1,400	$1.57	45d	1	1.32mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	14d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $286,255 Pending 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $286,255 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $286,255 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-05-14
   price $279,990 1076-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1076 chars)

   The aptly named Maverick floor plan is a standout in both style and functionality. A charming porch entry leads to a spacious open kitchen, showcasing both a walk-in pantry and a center island that's ideal for everything from food prep to entertaining. A dining room is steps away, leading into an inviting great room. The primary bedroom is off of the great room, showcasing a walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms and another bath round out this attractive floor plan, which also includes a 2-bay garage. * Photos may not be of exact home. Prices, plans, and terms are effective on the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Square footage/dimensions shown is only an estimate and actual square footage/dimensions will differ. Buyer should rely on his or her own evaluation of usable area. Depictions of homes or other features are artist conceptions. Hardscape, landscape, and other items shown may be decorator suggestions that are not included in the purchase price and availability may vary. ©2025 Century Communities, Inc.

5. 2026-01-24
   listed $286,255 Active 1076-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   MLS# 7849508 - Built by Century Communities - May 2026 completion! ~ The aptly named Maverick floor plan is a standout in both style and functionality. A charming porch entry leads to a spacious open kitchen, showcasing both a walk-in pantry and a center island that’s ideal for everything from food prep to entertaining. A dining room is steps away, leading into an inviting great room. The primary bedroom is off of the great room, showcasing a walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms and another bath round out this attractive floor plan, which also includes a 2-bay garage.

6. 2026-01-24
   listed $286,255 Active 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   MLS# 7849508 - Built by Century Communities - May 2026 completion! ~ The aptly named Maverick floor plan is a standout in both style and functionality. A charming porch entry leads to a spacious open kitchen, showcasing both a walk-in pantry and a center island that’s ideal for everything from food prep to entertaining. A dining room is steps away, leading into an inviting great room. The primary bedroom is off of the great room, showcasing a walk-in closet and an attached bath. Two additional bedrooms and another bath round out this attractive floor plan, which also includes a 2-bay garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,978 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,238 · $437/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,260/yr (+$272/mo · 164.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,035
• − Property taxes: −$1,978
• − Insurance: −$1,431
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$8,327
• Taxable loss: −$8,426
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,022
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Listed $286,255 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Listed $286,255 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,978 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.