429 N Mccampbell St · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1973 10,500 sqft lot Est $279k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't let the photos fool you — this 2-bedroom, 2-bath gem has good bones and serious potential just waiting to be unlocked! Nestled under mature shade trees on a established street in Aransas Pass, this spacious brick home offers more square footage and flexibility than you'd expect at this price point. Inside, you'll find two separate living areas plus a dedicated dining space — a layout that gives everyone room to spread out and makes entertaining a breeze. The tile flooring throughout the main living areas is durable and easy to maintain, and the solid structure means the heavy lifting has already been done. Step out back and discover the real bonus: a detached party/game ro

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Tile flooring
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED PARTY GAME ROOM
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• DEDICATED DINING SPACE
• TILE FLOORING
• BRICK EXTERIOR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Front entry parking; Rear/side/off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Built with slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed patio; Storage; Chain link and wood fencing; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located on the main level; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $899 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $175k implies a 1289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.01%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,056
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
444 Wheeler Ave	0.33mi	2/1.0	1,474 (-14%)	5mo	$240,000	$163	54
1036 N Houston St	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,672 (-2%)	15mo	$50,000	$30	53
701 N Rife St	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-15%)	13mo	$275,000	$189	52
122 S Mccampbell St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (-14%)	11mo	$375,000	$254	45
304 S Lamont St	0.57mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,604 (-6%)	24mo	$129,990	$81	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $28,962
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $99,216
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,724 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,153/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $899

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,587

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1109 W Nelson Ave Aransas Pass, TX	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,800	$1.38	43d	1	0.94mi
1131 S 8th St Unit 1268400P Aransas Pass, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$4,105	$3.21	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-24
    listed $175,000 Active
18. 1993-05-19
    soldstatus $12,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,153 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$49/yr (+$4/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,153
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,615
• − Management: −$2,615
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $8,540
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,050
• After-tax cash flow: $8,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aransas Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1288.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $175,000 CBMLS
• 1993-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $12,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,153 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.