34 Shinnecock Ave · East Quogue, NY 11942

$694,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 836 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1977 3,920 sqft lot $830/sqft · 10% below area Est $772k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step inside to find a warm and inviting main level with two nice sized bedrooms and plenty of natural light. The legal, fully finished basement adds an additional 568 square feet of valuable living space- perfect for an extra living room, home office, rec room, or gym. Out back your private oasis awaits. Enjoy entertaining, relaxing, or sharpening your short game on your very own backyard putting green- a rare and playful feature that sets this home apart. Located about a mile away from Shinnecock Bay and in the East Quogue/Westhampton School district.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 108 days

Tags

• FULLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• BACKYARD PUTTING GREEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $694k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($88k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $694k).
• Recommended offer: $632k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 10.6% in East Quogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $194k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($632k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $330k; list at $694k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $631,540 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.09%
• DSCR: 3.01
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $772,500
• List price: $694,000
• Delta: -10.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Shinnecock Ave	0.00mi	2/2.0	836 (0%)	0mo	$660,000	$789	96

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $352,369
• Equity at exit: $103,478

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $904,879
• Equity at exit: $60,004

Cash invested: $194,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,493 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,639
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,639/yr
• Insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,044
• Net cashflow: $7,301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,251

Max offer price $694,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $173,500
• Closing costs: $20,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	43d	1	0.55mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	11d	1	0.57mi
4 E End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.0	976	$4,500	$4.61	43d	1	0.64mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	43d	1	0.90mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	43d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Step inside to find a warm and inviting main level with two nice sized bedrooms and plenty of natural light. The legal, fully finished basement adds an additional 568 square feet of valuable living space- perfect for an extra living room, home office, rec room, or gym. Out back your private oasis awaits. Enjoy entertaining, relaxing, or sharpening your short game on your very own backyard putting green- a rare and playful feature that sets this home apart. Located about a mile away from Shinnecock Bay and in the East Quogue/Westhampton School district.

2. 2026-05-03
   price $694,000 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Step inside to find a warm and inviting main level with two nice sized bedrooms and plenty of natural light. The legal, fully finished basement adds an additional 568 square feet of valuable living space- perfect for an extra living room, home office, rec room, or gym. Out back your private oasis awaits. Enjoy entertaining, relaxing, or sharpening your short game on your very own backyard putting green- a rare and playful feature that sets this home apart. Located about a mile away from Shinnecock Bay and in the East Quogue/Westhampton School district.

3. 2026-03-29
   price $699,000 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Step inside to find a warm and inviting main level with two nice sized bedrooms and plenty of natural light. The legal, fully finished basement adds an additional 568 square feet of valuable living space- perfect for an extra living room, home office, rec room, or gym. Out back your private oasis awaits. Enjoy entertaining, relaxing, or sharpening your short game on your very own backyard putting green- a rare and playful feature that sets this home apart. Located about a mile away from Shinnecock Bay and in the East Quogue/Westhampton School district.

4. 2026-03-18
   price $730,000 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Step inside to find a warm and inviting main level with two nice sized bedrooms and plenty of natural light. The legal, fully finished basement adds an additional 568 square feet of valuable living space- perfect for an extra living room, home office, rec room, or gym. Out back your private oasis awaits. Enjoy entertaining, relaxing, or sharpening your short game on your very own backyard putting green- a rare and playful feature that sets this home apart. Located about a mile away from Shinnecock Bay and in the East Quogue/Westhampton School district.

5. 2026-01-30
   listed $745,000 Active 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Step inside to find a warm and inviting main level with two nice sized bedrooms and plenty of natural light. The legal, fully finished basement adds an additional 568 square feet of valuable living space- perfect for an extra living room, home office, rec room, or gym. Out back your private oasis awaits. Enjoy entertaining, relaxing, or sharpening your short game on your very own backyard putting green- a rare and playful feature that sets this home apart. Located about a mile away from Shinnecock Bay and in the East Quogue/Westhampton School district.

6. 2006-10-31
   soldstatus $329,600
7. 2000-04-28
   soldstatus $122,000
8. 1996-07-05
   soldstatus $85,000
9. 1987-04-07
   soldstatus $94,500
10. 1985-03-19
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,639 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,184 · $599/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,545/yr (+$379/mo · 172.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $173,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,875
• − Property taxes: −$2,639
• − Insurance: −$3,470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,913
• − Management: −$13,913
• − Depreciation: −$20,189
• Taxable income: $80,917
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19,420
• After-tax cash flow: $68,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+825.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $694,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $730,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listed $745,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $329,600 Public Records
• 2000-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1987-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $94,500 Public Records
• 1985-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,639 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.