29965 Stony Forest Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$354,990

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · Land · 154 Days on market

Built 2025 5,200 sqft lot $191/sqft · at area comps Est $353k · at est. $90/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Covered patio
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• SMART HOME CAPABILITIES
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• GORGEOUS BRICK EXTERIOR
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $236,735 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.23%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,142
• List price: $354,990
• Delta: 0.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $159,462
• Equity at exit: $319,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $479,898
• Equity at exit: $689,667

Cash invested: $99,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,449/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,916

Max offer price $278,434

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-232	-5% $-333	+0% $-433	+5% $-534	+10% $-634
Rent	-10% $-620	-5% $-527	+0% $-433	+5% $-340	+10% $-246
Rate	-1.0pp $-255	-0.5pp $-343	base $-433	+0.5pp $-525	+1.0pp $-619

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,748
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	44d	1	0.10mi
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	44d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $354,990 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $344,990 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $344,990 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $344,990 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $344,990 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $344,990 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $344,990 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $344,990 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $344,990 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $344,990 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,990 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $344,990 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,990 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,990 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $344,990 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

16. 2026-05-15
    price $349,990 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL SHEA HOMES NEW CONSTRUCTION in Magnolia's Newest Community, WOODHAVYN!. This beautiful 1-story home has an entry with an elegant rotunda, Smart home capabilities, a full sprinkler system, and beautiful landscaping. Wrapped with a gorgeous brick exterior, this one-story home provides optimal living in a layout containing 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, powder room, study and a two-car garage, and an open-concept living space. Fit for any culinary need, this kitchen contains stainless-steel built-in appliances, a 36” Gas Cooktop, a large kitchen island, and plenty of cabinetry for ultimate storage! Off the great room, enjoy the backyard from a covered patio, providing the perfect entertainment and relaxation space. Retreat to a large Primary Suite that features natural light, a separate tub, a Framed Shower, and a large walk-in closet. Find delight living in a Shea Home at Woodhavyn – come Live The Difference!

17. 2026-05-05
    price $349,990 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

18. 2026-03-12
    price $344,990 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

19. 2026-03-12
    price $344,990 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

20. 2026-03-09
    price $345,330 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL SHEA HOMES NEW CONSTRUCTION in Magnolia's Newest Community, WOODHAVYN!. This beautiful 1-story home has an entry with an elegant rotunda, Smart home capabilities, a full sprinkler system, and beautiful landscaping. Wrapped with a gorgeous brick exterior, this one-story home provides optimal living in a layout containing 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, powder room, study and a two-car garage, and an open-concept living space. Fit for any culinary need, this kitchen contains stainless-steel built-in appliances, a 36” Gas Cooktop, a large kitchen island, and plenty of cabinetry for ultimate storage! Off the great room, enjoy the backyard from a covered patio, providing the perfect entertainment and relaxation space. Retreat to a large Primary Suite that features natural light, a separate tub, a Framed Shower, and a large walk-in closet. Find delight living in a Shea Home at Woodhavyn – come Live The Difference!

21. 2026-03-07
    price $345,330 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

22. 2026-02-27
    price $344,990 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

23. 2026-01-27
    price $339,990 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

24. 2026-01-24
    price $340,140 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

25. 2026-01-15
    listed $339,990 Active 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL SHEA HOMES NEW CONSTRUCTION in Magnolia's Newest Community, WOODHAVYN!. This beautiful 1-story home has an entry with an elegant rotunda, Smart home capabilities, a full sprinkler system, and beautiful landscaping. Wrapped with a gorgeous brick exterior, this one-story home provides optimal living in a layout containing 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, powder room, study and a two-car garage, and an open-concept living space. Fit for any culinary need, this kitchen contains stainless-steel built-in appliances, a 36” Gas Cooktop, a large kitchen island, and plenty of cabinetry for ultimate storage! Off the great room, enjoy the backyard from a covered patio, providing the perfect entertainment and relaxation space. Retreat to a large Primary Suite that features natural light, a separate tub, a Framed Shower, and a large walk-in closet. Find delight living in a Shea Home at Woodhavyn – come Live The Difference!

26. 2026-01-15
    historical

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL SHEA HOMES NEW CONSTRUCTION in Magnolia's Newest Community, WOODHAVYN!. This beautiful 1-story home has an entry with an elegant rotunda, Smart home capabilities, a full sprinkler system, and beautiful landscaping. Wrapped with a gorgeous brick exterior, this one-story home provides optimal living in a layout containing 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, powder room, study and a two-car garage, and an open-concept living space. Fit for any culinary need, this kitchen contains stainless-steel built-in appliances, a 36” Gas Cooktop, a large kitchen island, and plenty of cabinetry for ultimate storage! Off the great room, enjoy the backyard from a covered patio, providing the perfect entertainment and relaxation space. Retreat to a large Primary Suite that features natural light, a separate tub, a Framed Shower, and a large walk-in closet. Find delight living in a Shea Home at Woodhavyn – come Live The Difference!

27. 2025-11-24
    price $339,990
28. 2025-11-22
    price $339,990 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

29. 2025-11-21
    price $359,990 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

30. 2025-11-21
    price $339,990 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

31. 2025-11-18
    price $359,990 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

32. 2025-11-11
    price $359,960 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

33. 2025-11-08
    price $359,990 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

34. 2025-11-04
    price $360,100 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

35. 2025-10-21
    price $359,990
36. 2025-10-18
    price $359,990 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

37. 2025-08-29
    listed $369,990 Active 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Bay window, Extended outdoor living, Under-cabinet lighting, Quartz countertops, Upgraded secondary bathroom, Full gutters

38. 2025-08-21
    price $369,990
39. 2025-05-22
    price $379,990
40. 2025-05-22
    listed $401,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,449 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,496 · $541/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,048/yr (+$337/mo · 165.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,885
• − Property taxes: −$2,449
• − Insurance: −$1,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,273
• − Management: −$2,273
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable loss: −$11,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,797
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $344,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $349,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $344,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $344,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $345,330 HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $345,330 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $344,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $340,140 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $339,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $339,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $359,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $359,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $359,960 Zillow
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $359,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $360,100 Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $359,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $359,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-29 Listed $369,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $369,990 HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $379,990 HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $401,000 HARMLS