12 Peconic Bay Ave · North Sea, NY 11968

$3,895,000

5 bd · 6.5 ba · 4,500 sqft · Land · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 0.34 ac lot $866/sqft · 43% above area Est $2719k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set within Southampton's coveted bayside corridor, this 2026 new construction offers the easy luxury of a private street, deeded Peconic Bay beach access, and effortless proximity to waterfront dining. Built by Cusumano Custom Homes and designed by Ryan Kesner, the 4,500 +/- SF traditional residence offers 5 bedrooms, 6.5 baths, and a thoughtful modern layout on . 34 acres. The main level features a bright great room, formal dining area, open-concept kitchen with premium appliances, a bedroom with en suite bath, mudroom, pantry, and access to the attached 2-car garage. Outdoor living centers around a covered bluestone patio and heated gunite pool, creating an easy setting for summer enterta

Key facts

• Private gym
• Heated gunite pool
• Finished lower level

Tags

• COVERED BLUESTONE PATIO
• HEATED GUNITE POOL
• PRIVATE GYM
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• QUIET COASTAL COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/6.5-bath land listed at $3.90M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-96k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.74M (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.40M (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.40M (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 6.5% in North Sea — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,063 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,954/mo this rent would consume 184% of the median local household income ($156k/yr) (locally 274% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $27k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $117k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($3.78M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $850k; list at $3.90M implies a 358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,395,439 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.80%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,719,084
• List price: $3,895,000
• Delta: 43.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-1,013,313
• Equity at exit: $580,757

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-960,289
• Equity at exit: $336,768

Cash invested: $1,090,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11968

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 14.6%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,426
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4,869 /mo · $58,425/yr
• Insurance: −$1,623
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,030
• Net cashflow: $-7,994

Break-even live

Break-even rent $34,073

Max offer price $2,738,328

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $973,750
• Closing costs: $116,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
779 Noyack Rd Southampton, NY	6.0	7.5	4653	$45,000	$9.67	43d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,895,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,895,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,895,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,895,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,895,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $3,895,000 Active 1249-char remark
16. 2025-04-14
    soldstatus $850,000
17. 2000-05-31
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $287,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$218,181
• − Property taxes: −$58,425
• − Insurance: −$19,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,996
• − Management: −$22,996
• − Depreciation: −$113,309
• Taxable loss: −$167,929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$40,303
• After-tax cash flow: $-55,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Sea

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1063
• US rank: #21178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Sea, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,312
• Household income: $156,219
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 274.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -184.86%
• Current HPI: 461.1144
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.62%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+5464.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $3,895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $850,000 Public Records
• 2000-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,404 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.