4515 Flood St · Port St. John, FL 32927

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1989 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-located home in the heart of Port St. John. Conveniently situated just minutes from US-1 and I-95, this property offers easy access to shopping, dining, schools, and local employers. The home features a functional layout with comfortable living spaces and great potential for personalization. Enjoy a quiet residential setting while still being close to everything the Space Coast has to offer, including beaches, Space Center attractions, and major commuter routes. A great opportunity for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking to establish roots in a growing area of Brevard County.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($903/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Atlantis Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 617 students, 60% FRL); Space Coast Junior/Senior High School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,534 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $285k implies a 428% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,194 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.13%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-42,693
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-36,293
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32927

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,086/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,157

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $156	+0% $75	+5% $-5	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-14	+0% $75	+5% $164	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $148	base $75	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4270 Fairfax St Cocoa, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,800	$2.06	25d	1	0.71mi
835 Kanawha St Cocoa, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,500	$2.08	25d	1	0.78mi
865 Dunbar St Cocoa, FL	3.0	2.0	1307	$2,350	$1.80	25d	1	0.82mi
426 Oakridge Ave Cocoa, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,550	$1.21	25d	1	1.09mi
6655 Corto Rd Cocoa, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$3,300	$2.29	16d	1	1.10mi
5075 Hogan Pl Unit 2 Cocoa, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	25d	1	1.11mi
7430 U.S. 1 Unit 201A Cocoa, FL	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,995	$1.68	25d	1	1.21mi
7200 US-1 Unit 203B Cocoa, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,995	$1.99	23d	1	1.37mi
6385 Wien Ln Cocoa, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,350	$1.74	21d	1	1.37mi
7030 N Highway 1 Unit DD104 Cocoa, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,850	$1.85	25d	1	1.49mi
7020 U.S. 1 Cocoa, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,850	$1.85	16d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $285,000
2. 2026-05-06
   historical
3. 1989-04-01
   soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,086 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,280/yr (+$107/mo · 117.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,086
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$4,067
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$976
• After-tax cash flow: $1,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. John

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. John, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 28,493
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,219
• Household income: $86,075
• Rent vs Own: 7.7% rent · 92.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 192.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.36%
• Current HPI: 330.5099
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+427.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $285,000 SCMLS
• 1989-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,086 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.