5831 Caldicote St · Atascocita, TX 77346

$229,750

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1977 6,599 sqft lot $108/sqft · 7% below area Est $248k · 7% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Positioned in Atascocita with convenient access to FM 1960, this unique 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a refreshing departure from the standard floor plan. The thoughtfully designed layout features a private first-floor sanctuary consisting of a spacious primary suite with a full bath and a cozy living room, while the second floor serves as an expansive entertainment hub with a second large living area, three additional bedrooms, and a well-appointed hallway bath. Step outside to enjoy your own private fenced backyard or take advantage of the premium community amenities located directly across the street, including the neighborhood pool and tennis courts. This versatile property combines the best of dual-zone living with an incredible location near shopping, dining, and Lake Houston, making it a rare find for those seeking extra space and convenience.

Key facts

• Tennis courts
• Neighborhood pool
• 6,599 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE FIRST-FLOOR SANCTUARY
• EXPANSIVE ENTERTAINMENT HUB
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• PREMIUM COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• NEIGHBORHOOD POOL
• TENNIS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Forest El (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,500 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 67% FRL); Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,857 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.41%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,346
• List price: $229,750
• Delta: -7.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19303 Timber Tree Ct	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,201 (+3%)	2mo	$305,000	$139	69
18622 Timbers Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,992 (-7%)	1mo	$270,000	$136	66
5811 Forest Timbers Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,292 (+7%)	1mo	$264,500	$115	65
5531 Flax Bourton St	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,318 (+8%)	1mo	$285,000	$123	65
5527 Enchanted Timbers Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,348 (+10%)	2mo	$279,900	$119	63
18803 Timber Spring Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,030 (-5%)	3mo	$299,999	$148	62
12935 Cascadia Knoll Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,127 (-0%)	3mo	$349,900	$165	62
19311 Forest Fern Ct	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,276 (+7%)	1mo	$299,900	$132	62
19331 Timber Tree Ct	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,423 (+13%)	3mo	$299,900	$124	49
12719 Muir Woods Trl	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (-13%)	0mo	$215,000	$116	39
6715 Atasca South Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,872 (-12%)	4mo	$250,000	$134	39
18614 Atasca Oaks Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,820 (-15%)	2mo	$244,000	$134	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-15,059
• Equity at exit: $55,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-8,331
• Equity at exit: $59,199

Cash invested: $64,330 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,309 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,205
• Tax from tax record: −$352 /mo · $4,228/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,145

Max offer price $229,750

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $194	+0% $129	+5% $64	+10% $-1
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $38	+0% $129	+5% $220	+10% $312
Rate	-1.0pp $245	-0.5pp $188	base $129	+0.5pp $70	+1.0pp $9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,438
• Closing costs: $6,892
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	45d	1	0.59mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	45d	1	0.65mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	6d	1	0.65mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,806	$1.19	0d	1	0.68mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	25d	1	0.72mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	45d	1	0.73mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	45d	1	0.80mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	6d	1	0.94mi
7002 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,869	$1.08	16d	1	0.96mi
19902 Burle Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,699	$1.11	45d	1	1.03mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	0d	14	1.07mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	45d	1	1.07mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	13d	1	1.07mi
7403 Misty Morning Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,900	$1.17	19d	1	1.17mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,306	$1.06	0d	1	1.27mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	45d	1	1.28mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	6d	1	1.29mi
7515 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	45d	1	1.34mi
20914 Lake Park Trl Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2462	$2,460	$1.00	6d	1	1.36mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	45d	1	1.37mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	45d	1	1.37mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	0d	1	1.37mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	23d	1	1.38mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	23d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,750 Pending 42 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,750 Pending 41 DOM
3. 2026-05-10
   price $229,750 866-char remark

   Show marketing remark (866 chars)

   Positioned in Atascocita with convenient access to FM 1960, this unique 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a refreshing departure from the standard floor plan. The thoughtfully designed layout features a private first-floor sanctuary consisting of a spacious primary suite with a full bath and a cozy living room, while the second floor serves as an expansive entertainment hub with a second large living area, three additional bedrooms, and a well-appointed hallway bath. Step outside to enjoy your own private fenced backyard or take advantage of the premium community amenities located directly across the street, including the neighborhood pool and tennis courts. This versatile property combines the best of dual-zone living with an incredible location near shopping, dining, and Lake Houston, making it a rare find for those seeking extra space and convenience.

4. 2026-04-20
   listed $235,000 Active 866-char remark

   Show marketing remark (866 chars)

   Positioned in Atascocita with convenient access to FM 1960, this unique 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a refreshing departure from the standard floor plan. The thoughtfully designed layout features a private first-floor sanctuary consisting of a spacious primary suite with a full bath and a cozy living room, while the second floor serves as an expansive entertainment hub with a second large living area, three additional bedrooms, and a well-appointed hallway bath. Step outside to enjoy your own private fenced backyard or take advantage of the premium community amenities located directly across the street, including the neighborhood pool and tennis courts. This versatile property combines the best of dual-zone living with an incredible location near shopping, dining, and Lake Houston, making it a rare find for those seeking extra space and convenience.

5. 2025-12-21
   historical $2,300
6. 2025-12-21
   historical
7. 2025-11-05
   listed $265,000 Active
8. 2025-11-04
   historical
9. 2025-07-08
   listed $2,300
10. 2025-06-30
    historical $2,300
11. 2025-06-25
    listed $2,300
12. 2025-05-08
    price $274,000
13. 2025-02-24
    listed $279,000 Active
14. 2025-02-20
    historical
15. 2025-01-08
    price $279,000
16. 2025-01-08
    listed $27,900 Active
17. 2025-01-07
    historical
18. 2024-09-20
    price $285,000
19. 2024-09-20
    listed $250,000 Active
20. 2024-07-13
    historical $2,200
21. 2024-07-11
    historical
22. 2024-05-30
    listed $2,200
23. 2024-04-28
    status Active
24. 2024-04-26
    status Pending
25. 2024-02-22
    price $249,000
26. 2024-02-09
    price $255,000
27. 2024-01-11
    listed $257,000 Active
28. 2023-12-18
    historical $2,050
29. 2023-11-16
    listed $2,050
30. 2023-10-12
    historical $2,050
31. 2023-09-26
    price $2,050
32. 2023-09-12
    historical
33. 2023-09-06
    price $2,200
34. 2023-09-06
    price $274,000
35. 2023-07-05
    listed $279,000 Active
36. 2021-05-14
    soldstatus
37. 2011-09-28
    historical
38. 2011-08-29
    listed $114,900
39. 2008-07-25
    historical
40. 2008-04-03
    listed $123,900
41. 2002-12-10
    soldstatus
42. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,228 · $352/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,228 · $352/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,870
• − Property taxes: −$4,228
• − Insurance: −$1,149
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,217
• − Management: −$2,217
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,684
• Taxable loss: −$2,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$518
• After-tax cash flow: $2,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+85.4% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $229,750 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $274,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-24 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-08 Listed $27,900 HARMLS
• 2025-01-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-13 Rental Removed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2024-07-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2024-04-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-04-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-02-22 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-09 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-11 Listed $257,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-18 Rental Removed $2,050 HARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Listed for Rent $2,050 HARMLS
• 2023-10-12 Rental Removed $2,050 HARMLS
• 2023-09-26 Price Changed $2,050 HARMLS
• 2023-09-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $274,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-05 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2021-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-09-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-08-29 Listed $114,900 HARMLS
• 2008-07-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-04-03 Listed $123,900 HARMLS
• 2002-12-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,228 · -7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.