135 Ash Dr · Emerald Lakes, PA 18334

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1973 0.55 ac lot Est $378k · 47% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Built in 1973, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious half-acre lot and offers incredible potential. Located just minutes from Kalahari Resort, Pocono Raceway, and many of the region's top attractions, it's an ideal opportunity for year-round living, a vacation getaway, or an Airbnb investment. The home does need work and is being sold AS-IS, giving the next owner the chance to bring their vision to life. Roof is approximately 4 years old.

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $598 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.0% in Emerald Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#974 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $199k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.89%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $377,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Ash Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,488 (0%)	1mo	$205,000	$138	99
1138 Horizon Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,591 (+7%)	1mo	$435,000	$273	75
1109 Bob Cat Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,421 (-4%)	9mo	$301,500	$212	68
703 Clearview Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-7%)	17mo	$275,000	$199	61
112 N Glade Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (+1%)	7mo	$593,000	$395	56
1110 Horizon Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,632 (+10%)	20mo	$415,000	$254	56
237 Ash Drive Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,356 (-9%)	7mo	$385,000	$284	52
394 Cedar Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (+10%)	16mo	$275,000	$169	43
1311 Hilltop Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+3%)	17mo	$398,000	$259	41
181 Cedar Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (-11%)	3mo	$173,000	$131	39
111 Beaver Dam Rd	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,696 (+14%)	9mo	$760,000	$448	37
249 Clearview Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-10%)	11mo	$325,000	$242	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $23,706
• Equity at exit: $48,535

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $86,867
• Equity at exit: $51,391

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18334

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,218/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $598

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,892

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2002-11-04
   soldstatus $116,000
4. 1998-08-17
   soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,218 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,218 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,218
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,543
• − Management: −$2,543
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $4,356
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,046
• After-tax cash flow: $6,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Emerald Lakes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #974
• US rank: #10662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Emerald Lakes, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,907

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 178.5307
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+176.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $199,000 PMAR
• 2002-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 1998-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,218 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.