1600 Oblate Ave · Mission, TX 78572

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1962 0.34 ac lot Est $218k · 33% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors Welcomed to 1600 Oblate Ave, Mission, TX on . 34 acre and corner lot. This is a two-unit home. Unit A features 3 bedrooms, walk-in shower, kitchen, spacious living room area, bonus room and plenty of cabinets for storage. Unit B features 1 bedroom with closet, kitchen and walk-in shower. Both units come with stove and refrigerator. Property comes with an exterior storage unit.

Key facts

• Two-unit home
• Walk-in shower
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• TWO-UNIT HOME
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• EXTERIOR STORAGE UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bryan El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 651 students, 71% FRL); Mission J H (math 13% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 680 students, 78% FRL); Veterans Memorial H S (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,932 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools at 77% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.99%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,710
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
916 Country Club Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,816 (+3%)	2mo	$175,000	$96	71
1812 Peace Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,810 (+2%)	6mo	$199,000	$110	67
816 E 12th St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,611 (-9%)	10mo	$185,000	$115	56
1018 N Keralum Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (-8%)	11mo	$225,000	$139	52
506 W 11th St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,853 (+5%)	14mo	$250,000	$135	49
1102 Fairway Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,886 (+7%)	9mo	$259,900	$138	48
2311 W Palm Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,906 (+8%)	16mo	$252,000	$132	43
315 Stacie Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,869 (+6%)	17mo	$199,000	$106	42
1205 Elm St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-14%)	1mo	$184,900	$121	42
2401 N Mayberry Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,663 (-6%)	18mo	$205,000	$123	41
403 Stacie Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,708 (-4%)	23mo	$269,500	$158	40
1013 Pamela Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,600 (-10%)	14mo	$175,000	$109	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-20,092
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-21,157
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,535 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,484/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,407

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $142	+0% $101	+5% $60	+10% $19
Rent	-10% $-20	-5% $41	+0% $101	+5% $162	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $138	base $101	+0.5pp $64	+1.0pp $25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
221 W 14th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,100	$0.85	44d	1	0.37mi
1707 Highland Park Ave Unit 4-B Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1336	$1,200	$0.90	14d	1	0.47mi
1827 Highland Park Ave Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	44d	1	0.54mi
2002 Thornton St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,300	$0.95	44d	1	0.64mi
502 Thornwood St Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1260	$1,600	$1.27	14d	1	0.84mi
2216 Robyn Ln Mission, TX	3.0	3.0	2033	$2,000	$0.98	21d	1	0.95mi
702 W 25th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,650	$1.20	19d	1	1.04mi
1511 Evergreen Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,300	$1.01	44d	1	1.14mi
607 Alameda Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,200	$1.27	44d	1	1.18mi
1606 Terrace Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2127	$2,600	$1.22	14d	1	1.35mi
3108 Highland Park Ave Mission, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	19d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-11-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-03
   listed $145,000 Active
3. 2025-05-25
   price $145,000
4. 2025-03-11
   listed $165,000 Active
5. 2024-09-27
   price $165,000
6. 2024-08-13
   listed $175,000 Active
7. 2016-05-18
   soldstatus
8. 2007-05-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,484 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,484 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,484
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$1,080
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$259
• After-tax cash flow: $1,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $145,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-05-25 Price Changed $145,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listed $165,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-09-27 Price Changed $165,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-08-13 Listed $175,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2016-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,484 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.