404 Jefferson St · Wapello, IA 52653

$82,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,699 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1935 6,534 sqft lot $49/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1935
• Listed 100 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#211 in IA, #3,881 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Wapello Community School District (rural): math 52% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #267 of 289 in IA (top 92%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($570 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Louisa County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $75,075 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.54%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,630
• List price: $82,500
• Delta: -51.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
627 Isett Ave	0.32mi	3/0.5	1,720 (+1%)	11mo	$155,000	$90	72
717 Franklin St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,804 (+6%)	7mo	$164,000	$91	66
427 S 5th St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+12%)	7mo	$260,000	$137	61
200 Royel Ct	0.39mi	3/3.0	1,730 (+2%)	12mo	$239,900	$139	61
811 S 4th St	0.42mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,746 (+3%)	14mo	$215,000	$123	53
621 N Prairie St	0.59mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,616 (-5%)	19mo	$100,000	$62	43
702 Franklin St	0.27mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,936 (+14%)	20mo	$67,250	$35	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $65,231
• Equity at exit: $74,323

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.63×
• Total profit: $176,185
• Equity at exit: $160,279

Cash invested: $23,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52653

• Home prices YoY: 13.8%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,292/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $727

Max offer price $82,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $365	-5% $342	+0% $318	+5% $295	+10% $272
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $274	+0% $318	+5% $363	+10% $408
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $339	base $318	+0.5pp $297	+1.0pp $275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,625
• Closing costs: $2,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $82,500 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $82,500 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,500 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,500 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,500 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,500 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,500 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $82,500 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,500 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $82,500 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $82,500 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $82,500 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $82,500 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,500 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,500 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,500 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,500 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-03-13
    listed $82,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,294 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 0.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,621
• − Property taxes: −$1,292
• − Insurance: −$412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,085
• − Management: −$1,085
• − Depreciation: −$2,400
• Taxable income: $2,669
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$641
• After-tax cash flow: $3,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wapello Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1929730
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,857
• Composite: 46.08/100
• National rank: #2515
• State rank: #267 of 289 in IA

Livability — Wapello

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #3881

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wapello, IA
• Population (ZIP): 3,203

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,061 people
• By 2030: 10,869 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 10,400 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 9,878 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 9,425 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 9,584 · -13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.0) · D 28.8% · R 69.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.2pp · 2024: -41.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.0 2020: R+33.3 2016: R+28.7 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.33%
• Current HPI: 192.9
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $82,500 Muscatine BOR

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,292 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.