8401 S Kolb Rd #127 · Tucson, AZ 85756

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured · 82 Days on market

Built 2002 Good condition 1,742 sqft lot $80/sqft · 27% below area Est $135k · 27% under ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained home located in the desirable 55+ Trails West Resort Park community in Tucson. This inviting residence offers comfortable living with an open and functional layout, abundant natural light, and thoughtful updates throughout. The spacious kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace, seamlessly connecting to the living and dining areas--ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a private retreat with generous storage and an en-suite bathroom, while additional space provides flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office. Enjoy Arizona living with a covered outdoor area perfect for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. The low-maintenance lot allows for easy upkeep, giving you more time to enjoy the community's amenities and social atmosphere. Trails West is a well-maintained, age-restricted community offering a variety of amenities and activities for its residents. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and essential services. Note: This is a manufactured home located in a leased land community. Buyer must be approved by park management. Monthly lot rent and additional fees may apply.

Key facts

• Low-maintenance lot
• Spacious kitchen
• Covered outdoor area

Tags

• OPEN AND FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• COVERED OUTDOOR AREA
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LOT
• VARIETY OF AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $679 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.39%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,821
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -26.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $24,688
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $67,192
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85756

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $679

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7500 E Voyager Rd Unit 138 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,599	$1.07	19d	1	0.26mi
8042 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	10d	1	1.33mi
6794 E Sea Horse Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	43d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $99,000 1180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained home located in the desirable 55+ Trails West Resort Park community in Tucson. This inviting residence offers comfortable living with an open and functional layout, abundant natural light, and thoughtful updates throughout. The spacious kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace, seamlessly connecting to the living and dining areas--ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a private retreat with generous storage and an en-suite bathroom, while additional space provides flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office. Enjoy Arizona living with a covered outdoor area perfect for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. The low-maintenance lot allows for easy upkeep, giving you more time to enjoy the community's amenities and social atmosphere. Trails West is a well-maintained, age-restricted community offering a variety of amenities and activities for its residents. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and essential services. Note: This is a manufactured home located in a leased land community. Buyer must be approved by park management. Monthly lot rent and additional fees may apply.

17. 2026-04-22
    price $110,000 1180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained home located in the desirable 55+ Trails West Resort Park community in Tucson. This inviting residence offers comfortable living with an open and functional layout, abundant natural light, and thoughtful updates throughout. The spacious kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace, seamlessly connecting to the living and dining areas--ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a private retreat with generous storage and an en-suite bathroom, while additional space provides flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office. Enjoy Arizona living with a covered outdoor area perfect for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. The low-maintenance lot allows for easy upkeep, giving you more time to enjoy the community's amenities and social atmosphere. Trails West is a well-maintained, age-restricted community offering a variety of amenities and activities for its residents. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and essential services. Note: This is a manufactured home located in a leased land community. Buyer must be approved by park management. Monthly lot rent and additional fees may apply.

18. 2026-03-28
    listed $119,000 Active 1180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained home located in the desirable 55+ Trails West Resort Park community in Tucson. This inviting residence offers comfortable living with an open and functional layout, abundant natural light, and thoughtful updates throughout. The spacious kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace, seamlessly connecting to the living and dining areas--ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a private retreat with generous storage and an en-suite bathroom, while additional space provides flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office. Enjoy Arizona living with a covered outdoor area perfect for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. The low-maintenance lot allows for easy upkeep, giving you more time to enjoy the community's amenities and social atmosphere. Trails West is a well-maintained, age-restricted community offering a variety of amenities and activities for its residents. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and essential services. Note: This is a manufactured home located in a leased land community. Buyer must be approved by park management. Monthly lot rent and additional fees may apply.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥104°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,656
• − Management: −$1,656
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $6,986
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,677
• After-tax cash flow: $6,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully maintained home in the Trails West Resort Park community offers a good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It is ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy Arizona living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint improves appearance and value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint improves appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,700
• Household income: $72,490
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 23% Black 7% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 39% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.28%
• Current HPI: 304.0243
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-16.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $99,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $110,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-28 Listed $119,000 MLSSAZ