14709 Eagles Claw Way · Elgin, TX 78621

$312,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,922 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2025 4,399 sqft lot $163/sqft · 6% below area Est $332k · 6% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Marek is a generously designed two-story home, ideal for your growing family. The first floor showcases an expansive open-concept layout, complemented by a luxurious master retreat. Upstairs, you’ll find a fun game room along with three roomy bedrooms. This home also offers an abundance of storage options, featuring multiple walk-in and linen closets to meet all your needs. The Marek is packed with stylish upgrades at no additional cost, starting with its stunning curb appeal, which includes professionally landscaped front yard and an elegant ¾ lite front door. Inside, enjoy a chef-inspired kitchen equipped with granite countertops and high-end stainless steel appliances. P

Key facts

• Master retreat
• Linen closets
• Storage options

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MASTER RETREAT
• GAME ROOM
• STORAGE OPTIONS
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• LINEN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $313k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-749 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (42.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (42.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12594% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $180,504 (42.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.27%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,769
• List price: $312,900
• Delta: -4.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18300 Stellers Sea St	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,924 (+0%)	2mo	$289,900	$151	91
18236 Stellers Sea St	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,924 (+0%)	7mo	$313,900	$163	86
18204 Papuan Cv	0.20mi	4/3.0	1,912 (-0%)	3mo	$278,541	$146	84
18205 Harpy Ct	0.18mi	4/3.0	1,912 (-0%)	8mo	$327,990	$172	80
14525 Bonellis Pass	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-5%)	6mo	$276,451	$151	73
18216 Papuan Cv	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-5%)	5mo	$281,985	$154	73
16416 Farmhouse Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,986 (+3%)	8mo	$248,400	$125	72
18209 Harpy Ct	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,121 (+10%)	7mo	$339,490	$160	67
19012 Speculator Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,794 (-7%)	3mo	$255,000	$142	66
14401 Tawny Eagles Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,669 (-13%)	5mo	$260,000	$156	58
216 Lavender Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,997 (+4%)	7mo	$301,640	$151	57
205 Lavender Ln	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,782 (-7%)	1mo	$291,670	$164	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $123,126
• Equity at exit: $281,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $401,022
• Equity at exit: $607,896

Cash invested: $87,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,115 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax from tax record: −$614 /mo · $7,365/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-749

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,063

Max offer price $180,504

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,225
• Closing costs: $9,387
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.22mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	24d	1	0.25mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	43d	1	0.26mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	43d	1	0.28mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	1d	1	0.29mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	24d	1	0.29mi
18741 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,980	$0.78	24d	1	0.30mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	0.34mi
17001 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,945	$0.77	20d	1	0.34mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	43d	1	0.34mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	24d	1	0.34mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	2d	1	0.35mi
19024 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,995	$0.78	43d	1	0.36mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.37mi
16429 Farmhouse Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,000	$0.79	2d	1	0.38mi
17041 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,370	$0.93	3d	1	0.42mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	0.43mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	2d	1	0.43mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	24d	1	0.44mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.44mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	19d	1	0.47mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	1d	1	0.51mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	4d	1	0.54mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	1d	1	0.56mi
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	43d	1	0.68mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	4d	1	0.74mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	0.83mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	43d	1	1.04mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	15d	1	1.06mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	17d	1	1.15mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	43d	1	1.17mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	12d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $312,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $312,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $312,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $312,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $312,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $312,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $312,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $312,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $312,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $312,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $312,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    historical $2,465
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $2,465
16. 2026-05-07
    status Active
17. 2026-05-07
    price
18. 2026-03-03
    historical $2,455
19. 2026-03-03
    status Pending
20. 2026-03-02
    price
21. 2026-02-21
    listed $2,455
22. 2026-02-19
    historical $2,455
23. 2026-02-13
    listed Active
24. 2026-02-10
    price
25. 2026-01-23
    listed $2,455
26. 2026-01-22
    historical $2,455
27. 2026-01-16
    listed Active
28. 2025-12-07
    listed $2,455
29. 2025-12-05
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,365 · $614/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,365 · $614/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,527
• − Property taxes: −$7,365
• − Insurance: −$1,564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,030
• − Management: −$2,030
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$9,103
• Taxable loss: −$14,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,519
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Rental Removed $2,465 ACTRIS
• 2026-05-08 Listed for Rent $2,465 ACTRIS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-03 Rental Removed $2,455 ACTRIS
• 2026-03-03 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed for Rent $2,455 ACTRIS
• 2026-02-19 Rental Removed $2,455 ACTRIS
• 2026-02-13 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed for Rent $2,455 ACTRIS
• 2026-01-22 Rental Removed $2,455 ACTRIS
• 2026-01-16 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-07 Listed for Rent $2,455 ACTRIS
• 2025-12-05 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+286.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $7,365 · +286.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.