5750 Via Real #232 · Carpinteria, CA 93013

$650,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Built 2017 1,306 sqft lot Est $510k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 2 bath with enclosed porch. Large living room/dining room combo, stainless steel appliances, washer/dryer in kitchen. 55+ Park. Mountain views.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Garden potential
• Private seating area

Tags

• MOUNTAIN FACING VERANDA
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• GARDEN POTENTIAL
• PRIVATE SEATING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park has 116 buildings; Pets allowed with restrictions
• HOA & community: Association present; Association amenities include spa/hot tub, clubhouse, game room, greenbelt, guest parking; Association fee includes water and property management

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; No attached garage
• Utilities: Water service included in association fees
• Home design: Single-story; Double wide manufactured home (Champion Home Builders)
• Construction: Other foundation; Other roof
• Exterior features: Outdoor spa / hot tub; Shed(s); Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range / gas stove; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: In-unit laundry; Water softener (owned); Hardwood flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $650k).
• Recommended offer: $640k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.1% in Carpinteria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#283 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Carpinteria Unified (suburban): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #255 of 517 in CA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Canalino Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #779 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 498 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.2%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,210/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 718% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($640k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $650k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $640,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.28%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $510,120
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5700 Via Real #83	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,463 (-6%)	24mo	$479,000	$327	61
5750 Via Real #244	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	9mo	$355,000	$264	60
5750 Via Real #255	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	9mo	$369,000	$275	59
5750 Via Real #267	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	24mo	$525,900	$365	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $51,127
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $369,526
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93013

• Rents YoY: 15.2%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,210 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,847/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,514
• Net cashflow: $1,863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,852

Max offer price $650,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,231	-5% $2,047	+0% $1,863	+5% $1,679	+10% $1,495
Rent	-10% $1,293	-5% $1,578	+0% $1,863	+5% $2,148	+10% $2,432
Rate	-1.0pp $2,190	-0.5pp $2,028	base $1,863	+0.5pp $1,694	+1.0pp $1,523

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5573 Calle Arena Carpinteria, CA	3.0	2.0	1860	$7,500	$4.03	24d	1	0.55mi
1098 Linden Ave Carpinteria, CA	3.0	2.0	1790	$7,500	$4.19	2d	1	0.79mi
4932 Sawyer Ave Carpinteria, CA	2.0	2.0	1570	$6,000	$3.82	44d	1	0.83mi
4745 Carpinteria Ave Carpinteria, CA	2.0	2.0	1365	$5,125	$3.75	2d	13	1.04mi
4885 Sandyland Rd #2 Carpinteria, CA	3.0	3.0	1780	$10,500	$5.90	44d	1	1.16mi
4885 Sandyland Rd #2 Carpinteria, CA	3.0	3.0	1780	$10,500	$5.90	24d	1	1.16mi
1488 Manzanita St Carpinteria, CA	3.0	2.0	1131	$11,500	$10.17	12d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $650,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $650,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $650,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $650,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $650,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $650,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $650,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $650,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $650,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $650,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,847 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,940 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,093/yr (+$258/mo · 167.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $86,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$1,847
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,922
• − Management: −$6,922
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable income: $12,265
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,944
• After-tax cash flow: $19,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carpinteria Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607560
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,780
• Composite: 32.27/100
• National rank: #5758
• State rank: #255 of 517 in CA

Livability — Carpinteria

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #9548

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carpinteria, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 16,317
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 16,317
• Household income: $110,359
• Rent vs Own: 39.0% rent · 61.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 718.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1390.66%
• Current HPI: 345.0001
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.23%
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+209.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $650,000 SBMLS
• 2017-06-20 Sold (MLS) $185,000 SBMLS
• 2017-05-24 Pending — SBMLS
• 2017-04-12 Listed $210,000 SBMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,847 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.