1330 Bailey Ave · Buffalo, NY 14206

$224,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1920 3,750 sqft lot Est $154k · 46% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1330 Bailey ave, a charming, well maintained 3/3 double located in Buffalo's Lovejoy Neighborhood. This multifamily has two units lower and upper. Both units comprises of 3 bedrooms and one full bath. Lower unit has three decent size bedrooms, spacious living-dining, full bath and kitchen. The upper unit has two decent size bedrooms and one small bedroom, spacious living-dining, full bath and kitchen. The house has its own driveway, nice backyard and full attic. The house has solid mechanics and is conveniently located to all amenities.

Key facts

• Solid mechanics
• Driveway
• Backyard

Tags

• TWO UNITS
• DRIVEWAY
• BACKYARD
• FULL ATTIC
• SOLID MECHANICS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $281/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,679/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 841% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $225k implies a 462% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $218,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.71%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1514 William St	0.39mi	6/2.0	2,200 (0%)	4mo	$175,000	$80	79
75 Schutrum St	0.58mi	6/2.0	2,152 (-2%)	8mo	$150,000	$70	62
24 Gatchell St	0.49mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,200 (0%)	12mo	$67,000	$30	62
153 Ideal St	0.38mi	6/2.5	2,390 (+9%)	10mo	$141,500	$59	58
80 Liddell St	0.62mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,099 (-5%)	1mo	$68,000	$32	58
56 Shepard St	0.55mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (-5%)	5mo	$88,000	$42	58
81 Schutrum St	0.59mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,149 (-2%)	10mo	$100,000	$47	56
115 Greene St	0.31mi	5/3.0 (-1)	1,968 (-10%)	6mo	$165,000	$84	54
86 Shepard St	0.60mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,024 (-8%)	2mo	$165,000	$82	52
345 Ideal St	0.45mi	6/2.0	1,960 (-11%)	12mo	$140,000	$71	51
53 Gold St	0.57mi	6/2.0	2,412 (+10%)	11mo	$170,000	$70	48
112 Liddell St	0.67mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,031 (-8%)	6mo	$65,000	$32	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $129,332
• Equity at exit: $171,756

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $348,754
• Equity at exit: $341,791

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,679 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,374/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,967

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $718	-5% $640	+0% $562	+5% $484	+10% $407
Rent	-10% $351	-5% $456	+0% $562	+5% $668	+10% $774
Rate	-1.0pp $675	-0.5pp $619	base $562	+0.5pp $504	+1.0pp $445

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$2,678
Total (2 units)			$2,679

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
518 Wilson St Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	1848	$1,500	$0.81	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-12-04
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-29
   listed $224,900 Active
3. 2018-07-03
   soldstatus $40,000
4. 2017-05-22
   historical
5. 2016-12-08
   price $49,900
6. 2016-07-02
   listed $57,900 Active
7. 2015-07-01
   historical
8. 2015-06-21
   price $74,500
9. 2015-05-13
   listed $77,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$3,374
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,572
• − Management: −$2,572
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable income: $3,366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$808
• After-tax cash flow: $5,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+192.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $224,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-22 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2016-12-08 Price Changed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-07-02 Listed $57,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-07-01 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2015-06-21 Price Changed $74,500 WNYREIS
• 2015-05-13 Listed $77,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $219 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.